Category Archives: Updated Charts

Gold Futures Prices Decline Towards Key Price Target $GC_F

By | Gold Futures, Traders Education, Updated Charts | No Comments

After the huge bull market that ended in 2011, Gold prices have done nothing but wring optimism out of Gold bugs at every turn. As many investors are aware, Gold has been a falling asset for the past 4 years.

In previous posts, I’ve mentioned a certain price level for Gold futures many times:  1179.4.

1179.4 was the low on June 28th, 2013 and a level that gold futures tested on both sides many times in 2014 & 2015. However that level sustained a significant breach this past summer. And in late October 2015 that level marked the unwinding of any bullish case one could currently make for gold, as a retest rally failed and sent gold tumbling towards its multi-year target of 1033.4.  I wrote about this gold price target back in 2013 and Gold is now clearly within striking distance.

So, how did I derive a target that far out ? Using a proprietary Fibonacci method I co-developed several years ago, which I like to call “One shot, One kill,” I identified what I determined to be two swing levels that would yield a long term target as well as 2 resistance levels that were never tested.

Not being able to test even the first resistance level was one of many clues that gold futures were no longer a “flight to safety.”  I saw several so-called gold experts calling for gold prices anywhere from $2500 to $10,000 an ounce. Obviously they were trading their heart and not the chart.

As you can see in the 4 year, daily chart below, swing point 1 was 1798.1, the high on October 5th, 2012. Swing point 2 was identified at 1179.4, the low on June 28th, 2013. And here we are nearly 2 1/2 years later and less than $23 from the target.

Gold Futures – 4 year, daily chart

Gold Futures - 4 year, daily chart

Gold Futures – 4 year, daily chart

 

So, where does gold go from here ? I full expect the target to be hit and will likely provide some support, very likely temporary support.

Until the 1033.4 target is closed, I can’t derive a new downside target but I’ll leave you with this final chart to ponder on (Hint: It doesn’t look good for gold bulls & bugs over the intermediate term)

Gold Futures – 10 year, weekly chart

Gold Futures - 10 year, weekly chart

Gold Futures – 10 year, weekly chart

 

It’s also worthy to note that “half-way back” has been broken on the 10 year chart. Ironically, a secondary Fibonacci level that could lend some support is only $4.60 above the 1033.4 target.

Thanks for reading and always trade the charts, not your heart !

Dave

This post originally appeared on See It Market

 

 

 

The QQQ’s. Short and long term targets.

By | Everything Else, NASDAQ Composite, Traders Education, Updated Charts | No Comments

Below are different time frames with long and short term targets, support & resistance levels.

For a longer term target and support levels, I’ll start with a 3 year, weekly. Keep in mind there’s a large spread between first support of 87.85 and the target of 126.92.  To compensate, I’ll drill down to shorter time frames.

QQQ – 3 year, weekly chart

QQQ 3 year, weekly chart.

QQQ 3 year, weekly chart.

 

To tighten the spread up, let’s drill down to a 1 year, daily chart. This gives us a target of 120.09 and first support at 102.32.

QQQ – 1 year, daily chart

QQQ 1 year, daily chart

QQQ 1 year, daily chart

 

Staying with a daily chart, let’s tighten the draw up a bit and continue to tighten the support to target spread. In the 1 month, daily chart below, you’ll see there is a current downside target of 109.23 with first resistance at 111.48. The daily candle on  Friday, August 14th was able to close above the upper downtrend line.

From here, you’ll want to watch for a push through 111.48 and 111.83, which will create an upside target. If price can’t push thru these levels, support will be at 109.23.

QQQ – 1 month, daily chart

QQQ 1 month, daily chart

QQQ 1 month, daily chart

 

To trade this on an intraday level, I would drill down to a minimum of a 4 hour time frame.

Thanks for reading.

Dave

 

Is 4%+ the new correction ? $SPX $SPY $ES_F

By | S&P 500 E-Mini Futures, Traders Education, Updated Charts | No Comments

This is a follow up to a post I originally made at See It Market. (Link will open in a new window)

While doing a 10 year chart of the S&P 500 and measuring the corrections, I noticed a pattern that started in August 2013. Notice how the pullbacks are getting smaller and almost the same percentage ? 4.80%, 4.27% and 4.37%

Below is the original chart.

$SPX 10 year, weekly with corrections.

$SPX 10 year, weekly with corrections.

 

Now, the below chart really has my interest. Why ? The current pullback is 4.34% and price is climbing. So in summary, the last 4 pullbacks are all within 0.6% or less of each other. Coincidence ? Personally, I don’t think so. Computerized trading programs picking price up just before a 5% pullback .. looks that way to me.

This will be very interesting to watch.

$SPX 4.34% pullback

$SPX 4.34% pullback

 

Thx,

Dave

A 10 year look at the S&P 500 with corrections. $SPX

By | S&P 500 E-Mini Futures, Traders Education, Updated Charts | No Comments

Let’s take a look at the S&P 500 from the beginning of the housing/financial fiasco in 2007 – 2008 and the following recovery; albeit Central Bank driven, numbers are numbers.

What has come to be known as The Great Recession, technically occurred from October 8th, 2007 to March 2nd, 2009. The S&P 500 dropped -57.69% in that time period.

Annotated chart below.

October '07 high - March '09 low

October ’07 high – March ’09 low

 

You can see in the chart below that from the low of 666.79, the S&P made a move up of +198.65% to reach an all time high of 1991.39 on July 21st, 2014.

March '09 low - July '14 high

March ’09 low – July ’14 high

 

Now, let’s look closer and see what has occurred during that nearly 200% move up. In the annotated chart below, I’ve noted 12 times the S&P 500 has pulled back at least -4% or more.  What I find interesting is the last 3 pullbacks were -4.80%, -4.27% &- 4.37%, respectively. This tells me the “dip-buyers” are still expecting more upside movement.

$SPX 10 year, weekly with corrections.

$SPX 10 year, weekly with corrections.

 

Thx,

Dave

This was originally posted on See It Market

 

 

Updated charts including NG above $5

By | Comparison chart, Dow Jones E-Mini Futures, NASDAQ E-Mini Futures, Natural Gas Futures, Russell 2000 E-Mini Futures, S&P 500 E-Mini Futures, Traders Education, Updated Charts | No Comments

This past Thursday China’s flash Markit/HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) came in at 49.6. When this number drops under 50, it signals an economy is no longer expanding. This appeared to be the catalyst that triggered the US markets pullback. And I think that’s all it is, a normal pullback.

Nat gas has ripped through the $5 level on the deep freeze sweeping the country. (2 charts below)

Click here for a chart of the ES

Click here for a chart of the TF

Click here for a chart of the NQ

Click here for a chart of the YM

Click here for this week’s comparison chart

Click here for a chart of NG

Click here for the long term NG chart

If you have any questions, e mail me at [email protected]

Thx,

Dave

10/18/2013. New targets on ES, TF and NQ

By | Updated Charts | No Comments

 

Click here for chart of ES

Click here for chart of TF

Click here for chart of NQ

Thx,

Dave

 

Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.