Category Archives: US Dollar Index Futures
After I post charts and opinions, I like to go back a few months later and see how things have progressed. Today I’ll be updating charts originally posted in July, August and September of 2014. I’ll be covering Gold Futures, Silver Futures,Â the Standard & Poor’s 500 E-MiniÂ and the US Dollar Index.
On July 27th, I did an article on Gold Futures here. In that post, the highlights were:
- A longer term target of 1033.4.
- TheÂ consolidation phase of gold since mid-2013 with the trading range increasingly becoming smaller. The trading range narrowed from $252 to $59 on a weekly basis.
- Â At that time, gold was trading at 1308.5.
Lets take a look at an updated chart and see what has transpired in the past 3 months.
In the chart below, you can see gold has broken several support levels on the daily chart as well as the weekly. It’s currently trading at 1173.5 or a decrease of -10.31% since July 27th. The current daily target is 1150.6 and the weekly target is 1138.1.
More importantly, gold closed Friday, October 31st, below a crucial support level of 1179.4. I’ll explain the significance of that level in a separate chart.
Gold Futures 6 month, daily chart
Now, why is 1179.4 a crucial support level ? In the chart below you’ll see 1179.4 was the low on June 28th, 2013. On December 31st, 2013, gold made a low of 1181.4 and on October 6th, 2014 a low of 1183.3; in essence you have a triple bottom, (if you believe in such things), that has now failed.
It is worth noting that on July 26th, 2010, gold made a low of 1155.6 which could be perceived as a sliver of support for desperate bulls.
Gold Futures 3 year, daily chart
The above chart of Gold Futures is a textbook example of the point I hope I was able to make inÂ an article I wrote here just recently.
And let’s not forget theÂ Goldman Sachs Precious Metals Index (GPX). In this article from September 10th, I showed 3 levels of support at 1652.66, 1589 and 1584.59. In the below chart you can see all three levels have been broken.
This week saw the GPX give up another -5.04%.
Goldman Sachs Precious Metals Index (GPX)
Now onto the S&P 500 E-Mini. On August 8th, 2014, I did a piece on the Standard & Poor’s 500 E-Mini here.
The highlights of that post were:
- A correction was occurring
- 2 targets of 2011.5 and 2030.
- An open gap at 1896.5
- Central Banks and interest rates
Just a week shy of 3 months since that post, lets see where we are.
- A correction did occur from September 19th to October 15th. The correction was from 2014.5 to 1813 or 10.0%; a perfect “technical correction.”
- The target of 2011.5 was hit on September 19th.
- The target of 2030 is still valid and definitely within striking distance now.
- The gap at 1896.5 was closed.
- The US Federal Reserve has ended QE3 and in their October 29th announcement said.. “likely.. toÂ maintain the 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time..Â especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run goal”*
- The Bank of Japan (BOJ) announced on October 31st they would increase their bond purchases (QQE) and will now include purchases of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and real estate investment trusts (J-REITs).*
S&P 500 E-Mini Â 1 year, daily chart
In the annotated chart below, I’ve outlined how the target of 2030 was derived.
S&P 500 E-Mini 4 year, daily chart
On August 24th, 2014 , I talked about Silver Futures here. In that post, the focus was on two key support levels that gave way and technically weakened silver appreciably.
- 26.87 as 1st support
- 21.455 as 2nd support level.
- These levels were derived from a 20 year, monthly chart and had held for 18 months and 2 months, respectively.
- A longer term target of 14.095
So let’s see where silver is trading now and how much, if any, damage was done by the two support levels not being able to hold.
In the chart below you can clearly see Silver continues to weaken, notwithstanding the noticeable buying late Friday.
- A bear flag formed andÂ did play out.
- The current target is 16.08 and has been hit but isn’t closed.
- The longer term target of 14.095 is still valid.
- Price would have to close above 16.995 in short order to give any validity to Friday’s (10/31/2014) buying.
Silver Futures 1 year, daily chart
On September 12th, 2014, I talked about the strength of the US Dollar here. Â In that post I highlighted:
- 2 areas of consolidation preceding upward moves.
- The consolidation periods were relatively short; 14 sessions and 6 sessions.
So how’s the dollar been doing in the last 6 weeks ? Still strong and as you can see in the chart below it’s currently at a new multi-year high. After the Bank of Japan’s announcement last Friday, I think the dollar has more room to the upside.
- Current target = 87.485
- It is worth noting that there is an open gap at 87.74 on a weekly chart.
- On the same day that gap was created, a 5 year high was put in at 88.905.
US Dollar Index 1 year, daily chart
Charts were originally posted on @seeitmarket.
Thanks for reading, always use a stop and follow the chart !
GUDD = Gold up, dollar down.
“What the hell happened?” seemed to be the question of the day Wednesday, October 8th, 2014. Gold moved up nearly $20 from it’s low to close at 1221.9 and is currently at 1226.6 as I type this.
The US Dollar Index made a low of 85.29 and currently is at 85.35, well off it’s high of 86.87 created just 5 days ago.
So, what happened. Pretty simple. From the FOMC minutes:
Over the intermeeting period, the foreign exchange value of the dollar had appreciated, particularly against the euro, the yen, and the pound sterling. Some participants expressed concern that the persistent shortfall of economic growth and inflation in the euro area could lead to a further appreciation of the dollar and have adverse effects on the U.S. external sector.
Will the spaghetti stick to the wall ? I don’t think it willÂ but it will be interesting to watch 🙂
The US Dollar has continued to punish those that bet against it. It has been overbought for some time but as most seasoned investors know, overbought can stay overbought for longer than one thinks. This week the US Dollar Index (DX) broke through the July 8, 2013 weekly high of 84.965. This has put the market on notice and may signal more near-term upside. But, for that to happen, weâ€™d likely need to see a continuation of US Dollar strength into the weekend.
That said, here are a couple things to watch going forward to determine if this Dollar rally is ready for a breather, or for more upside.
1. Â I believe that a close on Friday, 9/26/2014 above 84.965 will strengthen the US Dollarâ€™s case for more upside. And further, this would continue to pressure commodities andÂ weaken precious metals. Gold Futures slipped to 1207.40 overnight but has since recovered and the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) has recovered early losses today as well.
2. Â AnyÂ immediate give back that falls below this level and holds would likely indicate that the US Dollar is setting up for a pullback.
I had previously highlighted keyÂ resistance levels for the US Dollar in July and just a couple of weeks ago talked about the prospect of more US Dollar strength.
84.965 is the number to watch now.
US Dollar Index (DX) 5 Year Weekly Chart
This post originally appeared on See It Market.
The US Dollar has the attention of the global financial markets, especially the commodities sector. Just check out the action in Grains, Oil, and Precious Metals. Earlier this week, I highlighted the weakness in Gold and Silver. SurelyÂ a function of a stronger US Dollar.
So, is the US Dollar setting up for another move higher? Letâ€™s see what the chart is telling us and check in on some key Fibonacci levels.
Here are some highlights and takeaways from the US Dollar chart posted below:
- From the low of 79.77 on July 1st, 2014,Â to the high of 81.34 on July 29th, 2014 the Dollar increased by 1.96%.
- The Dollar then consolidated for the next 14 trading days in a 0.51Â¢ range.
- From the low of 81.64 on August 19th, 2014, to the high of 84.38 on September 9th, 2014 the Dollar increased 3.35%.
- The Dollar is currently consolidating again, so far, in a 0.46Â¢ range.
It will be important to see if the US Dollar Index can consolidate once again over the coming days. ThisÂ will be interesting to watch to say the least.
The annotated chart is below.
This post originally appeared on See It Market.
Just yesterday I posted a shorter term target of 81.293 on the daily dollar chart. That target was hit and closed. The new shorter term target is 81.405 which has already been hit and ripped through !
Also, if the dollar can close above 81.495 today that will give us the base to start deriving a new longer term target.
Just yesterday I published a chart of the US dollar index and noted the major resistance level 81.499 (81.495). That post can be seen on See It Market.
This morning, that level was hitÂ after the US GDP report came in at 4%. We’ll watch this level closely now for a change in the long term trend.
Let’s start with a longer term view of the US dollar index. Measuring the move from the September 2013 high to the May 2014 low creates resistance levels of 81.028 and 81.499. As noted on the chart, price was rejected at these levels in January, February and June 2014.
A close on a daily candle above 81.499 would create a new, longer term upside target.
Now let’s drill down to a 6 month chart and draw a smaller fib inside the larger one. This creates a target of 81.293, which was hit as I’m typing this ! The support levels are 81.003 and 80.956. That also puts the target right smack in the middle of the larger Fibonacci levels.
It’s worthy to note that price has been able to push through the June 5th, 2014 high of 81.165.
This is the same 6 month chart; I’ve just zoomed in on the levels to watch.Â As I said previously, the target of 81.293 was actually hit as I was typing this post and so far is being rejected. If the daily candle can close above 81.293 that would create a new upside target.
On the support end, a close below 80.956 would create a new target to the down side.
This was originally posted onÂ See It Market
â‚¬â€ David Busick (@TheFibDoctor) Mar. 19 at 05:10 PM