Category Archives: Updated Charts

Crude Oil Futures playing out as projected $CL

By | Crude Oil Futures, Traders Education, Updated Charts | No Comments

In January of 2016, I did an article on Crude Oil Futures where I identified a resistance zone of 37.28 to 41.47 using my Fibonacci method, which I refer to as the “One Shot, One Kill” method. Note that I was able to identify this resistance zone after $27.01 had been hit and price had begun to enter into a relief rally. The chart below shows that while crude oil futures were trading at 58.88 (in June of 2015) there was a lower outstanding Fibonacci price target of 27.01. (this chart and target can be found in the link above)

Crude Oil Futures – 5 years, weekly chart

Crude Oil Futures June 2015

Crude Oil Futures June 2015

 

The 3-year chart below shows the target being hit in Q1 16.

Crude Oil Futures – 3 years, daily chart

Crude Oil Futures - Target = $27.01

Crude Oil Futures – Target = $27.01

 

Now let’s take a closer look at the aforementioned resistance zone and how I determined where that resistance would be.

My “One-shot, One-kill” method of identifying targets, support and resistance is a method I spent years developing and is amazingly accurate when used correctly. In the chart below, you’ll see the resistance zone highlighted as well as a level marked at $42.41.

Crude Oil Futures – 1 year, daily chart

Crude Oil Futures resistance range

Crude Oil Futures resistance range

 

And finally, let’s take a look at how this resistance zone played out. Hint: This is where the “amazing accuracy” part takes center stage 🙂

Crude Oil Futures – 2 months, daily chart (notes on chart)

Crude Oil Futures - 2 Month chart

Crude Oil Futures – 2 Month chart

 

If you’re interested in learning my “One shot, One Kill method,” email me here for a customized quote depending on your situation and work schedule.

Thanks for reading and always use a stop !

Dave

Crude Oil Futures Testing Higher Resistance Levels $CL

By | Crude Oil Futures, Traders Education, Updated Charts | No Comments

The sharp rally in crude oil prices over the last month has given the market a bit more confidence. But what oil does from here will bear importance.

Crude Oil Futures are currently testing a price resistance zone that I first identified in January 2016 in this post.

Just a bit higher resides another resistance zone at $42.41.  This level has been a magnet for crude oil prices since March 2015. In the chart below, you’ll see how price has gravitated to that area many times. So put it on your radar.

Crude Oil Futures – 3 Year, Daily chart

Crude Oil Futures 3 Year, daily chart

Crude Oil Futures 3 Year, daily chart

 

Now let’s drill down to a 3 month time frame. You can clearly see where price did, in fact, push into the price resistance zone and was able to close above it for one day. On Friday, March 18th, price once again hit the $42.41 level and was quickly rejected just above at $42.49.

Crude Oil Futures – 3 Month, Daily chart

Crude Oil Futures - 3 month chart

Crude Oil Futures – 3 month chart

 

At this time, I would not be in a rush to get long or short crude oil futures, but rather be an observer for continued rejection or a solid break above the resistance zone and the $42.41 level.

Thanks for reading and always use a stop !

Dave

This post originally appeared on See It Market

 

 

 

 

Crude oil futures in “churn” mode $CL

By | Crude Oil Futures, Traders Education, Updated Charts | No Comments

In this post from January, I identified a resistance zone for crude oil futures. Price has now moved into that zone and for 3 days has been churning:

  • Day 1 = Range of $2.02 and closed up.
  • Day 2 = Range of $2.27 and closed down.
  • Day 3 = Range of $2.27 and closed up.

Crude Oil Futures – Daily chart

Crude Oil Futures Resistance Range

Crude Oil Futures Resistance Range

 

Crude Oil Futures – 1 year, Daily chart

Crude Oil Futures

Crude Oil Futures

 

Thx,

Dave

 

 

New lower targets for Crude Oil Futures $CL

By | Crude Oil Futures, Updated Charts | No Comments

The Crude oil market has garnered a lot of interest over the last year.  Much of it has to do with its steep and historic decline, while some has to do with traders infatuated with picking bottoms.

Either way, Crude has been stuck between $26 and $35.  And I think it’s time to take another look at Crude Oil.

As outlined in this piece from June 2015, a projected target of $27.01 was hit in January, 2016. A relief rally ensued, helped out by rumors of a cut and/or production freeze by OPEC. As the rumor mill ground to a halt, so did the upward move in prices and crude made another low of 26.05 in February, 2016.

Cue part 2 and more rumors of a freeze in production levels kicked off another rally. Now I feel like price has moved enough in both directions to obtain a new target zone using my Fibonacci levels method.

Recently I identified a resistance zone of 37.2841.47 as outlined in this post.

My downside target(s) is now a very tight zone of 20.7820.18 as shown in the chart below.

Crude Oil Futures – 6 Month, Daily chart

Crude Oil Futures

Crude Oil Futures

Thanks for reading and always use a stop !

Dave

This post originally appeared on See It Market

 

 

 

Stock Market Update: $SPX Fibonacci Price Levels To Watch

By | S&P 500 Index, Updated Charts | No Comments

Less than a month ago, I pondered the question “Is It Time To Wave Goodbye To the Bull Market In 2016?“. In that post, I gave you S&P 500 fibonacci levels to watch for support. Let’s review and provide an update.

At that time, 1867.01 had already been tested so our focus was more on 1820.66 and 1737.92.

In that post from January 19th, 2016, I cautioned readers:

“…you’ll want to monitor this closely for a daily candle CLOSE below 1867.01. That would open the door for another 47 point drop easily.”

Price did close under 1867.01 and that did indeed open the door for two pullbacks of 54.72 and 56.91 points, with the low being 1810.1 on February 11th, 2016. Buyers did come in below the second support level of 1820.66 and were able to push the closing price back above that level.

Key S&P 500 Fibonacci levels are noted in the chart below along with the current correction of (15.20%).

Price did close under 1867.01 and that did indeed open the door for two pullbacks of 54.72 and 56.91 points, with the low being 1810.1 on February 11th, 2016. Buyers did come in below the second support level of 1820.66 and were able to push the closing price above that level.  These levels are noted in the chart below along with the current correction of (15.20%).

   S&P 500 Index – 4 Year, Daily Chart

S&P 500 4 year, daily chart

S&P 500 4 year, daily chart

 

Now let’s drill down to a 3 month time frame and see what our S&P 500 Fibonacci levels are telling us. Currently, the closing price on Friday, February 12th of 1864.78 gives us a short term Fibonacci target of 1877.68 with support levels at 1837.44 and 1830.99. As you can see in the below chart, that target is above our now resistance level of 1867.01.

At this point, you should monitor these levels closely for hints of a continuation of the 7 year bull market or a further correction.

S&P 500 Index – 3 Month, Daily Chart

S&P 500 3 Month, daily chart

S&P 500 3 Month, daily chart

Thanks for reading and always use a stop !

Dave

This post originally appeared on See It Market

 

 

 

 

Where Is The Crude Oil Rally Headed Next? $CL

By | Crude Oil Futures, Updated Charts | 6 Comments

Crude oil futures are volatile enough on a normal day, but with rumors of a Russia/OPEC February meeting to discuss production cuts, it’s really volatile now.

As far as I can tell, the meeting and/or production cuts are currently an unfounded rumor – so we’ll wait to see if there is actual confirmation of this buzz. Nonetheless, the crude oil rally has continued into this week.

Note that buyers came in after a capitation-like move down to my long term target of $27.01 on January 20th, 2016.

If crude oil prices continue to push higher, the question is how high will this crude oil rally go ?

No one truly knows where the price of anything is going, but as a technician, I can share my calculated best guess with you. Those of you that are familiar with my style know that I normally give a price target and two levels of support or resistance. In this case, we’re looking for resistance.

I’ve identified four levels of resistance, all within a $4.19 range . I’ve highlighted that range on the chart below. If the crude oil rally reaches this price resistance zone,  I’d expect a pullback there.

Crude Oil Futures – 1 year, daily chart

Crude Oil Futures resistance range

 

Thanks for reading and remember to always use a stop.

Dave

This post originally appeared on See It Market

 

Crude Oil Declines Into Major Fibonacci Price Target; Rallies. $CL_F

By | Crude Oil Futures, Traders Education, Updated Charts | No Comments

Crude oil futures prices dipped below $27 per barrel last week before recovering with a late week rally that recaptured the psychological level of $30.

That rally may seem minor in the scheme of things, but it has traders of all asset classes feeling better.

The crude oil decline has been sharp, but its been a long time in the making. In June of 2015 I wrote a piece on Crude Oil futures and gave a price target of $27.01. At the time, crude was trading at $58.88, so a crude oil decline of 54.12% seemed like stretch at best.

It took some time, but the oil market made its way to my mark. I derived this price target using my Fibonacci method that I like to call “One shot, one kill.” Below is the original chart that I shared prior to the recent crude oil decline to new lows.

Crude Oil Futures – 5 year, weekly chart

Crude Oil Futures  June 2015

Crude Oil Futures June 2015

 

Fast forward to the week of January 18th, 2016 and the price target of $27.01 was indeed hit on the February ’16 (G6) futures contract. Crude oil is currently trading around $32 on hints the ECB is poised to ease monetary policy even more. Is the market following crude oil prices or is crude following the market? Is the crude oil decline over? Stay tuned.

Below is the updated chart.

Crude Oil Futures – 5 year, weekly chart

Crude Oil Futures February 2016 contract

Crude Oil Futures February 2016 contract

 

Thanks for reading and always use a stop.

Dave

Will Investors Say Goodbye To The Bull Market In 2016? $SPX

By | S&P 500 Index, Traders Education, Updated Charts | No Comments

Hello 2016, goodbye bull market. Or is it just another market correction?

Markets move in 3 directions:  up, down and sideways. Let’s go take a look at the charts for clues on what this first 2 weeks of 2016 is telling us about the stock market.

Let’s start with a longer term, big picture chart of 10 years highlighting the many market pullbacks and market corrections. In the chart below, you’ll see where the raging bull market began its stampede in Q1 2009. The move from low to high was an impressive +220.14% with shallow pullbacks becoming the norm starting in August of 2013. For the next 2 years the pullbacks averaged in the mid 4 percent range.

As noted on the chart, the 2 most recent market corrections were (12.54%) and (12.97%).

Standard and Poor’s 500 Index – 10 year, weekly chart

S&P 500 Index 10 year, weekly chart

S&P 500 Index 10 year, weekly chart

 

In the chart below, I’ve drilled down to a shorter time frame of 4 years to find areas of support. There are 3 levels that I’ve given extra weight to as far as strong support; 1867.01, 1820.66 and 1737.92

  1. On August 24th, 2015, price made a low of 1867.01, moved up +8.24% before falling back very close to the previous support, making a low of 1871.91 before moving back up a respectful +13.06%.
  2. On October 15th, 2014, price made a low of 1820.66 and then moved up +14.21%.
  3. On February 5th, 2014, price made a low of 1737.92 and then moved up +8.38%.

Standard and Poor’s 500 Index – 4 year, daily chart

S&P 500 4 year, daily chart

S&P 500 4 year, daily chart

 

Now, using my Fibonacci technique, let’s see if we get any fibonacci levels that coincide with those support levels. In the chart below, you’ll see a target of 1868.95 which was hit on Friday, January 15th, 2016, but was not closed. Price fell slightly under that target and the August support level before buyers pushed it back up to close at 1880.33.

From here, you’ll want to monitor this closely for a daily candle CLOSE below 1867.01. That would open the door for another 47 point drop easily. Or, if price can push up from here, 1932.14 is the level you want to see price push through, with substantial volume.

Standard and Poor’s 500 Index – 4 year, daily chart

S&P 500 Index 1 year, daily chart

S&P 500 Index 1 year, daily chart

 

Be careful out there !

Dave

This post originally appeared on See It Market

 

Is the Russell 2000 Index entering a bear market ? $RUT

By | Russell 2000 Index, Traders Education, Updated Charts | No Comments

Back in May of 2015, I wrote a piece on the Russell 2000 Index highlighting 2 support levels of 1221.44 and 1213.55. In that post, I also included a warning:

Investors will look for price to build upon its recent rally. However, it should be noted that a pullback that pushes below the identified support levels would be reason for caution.

It’s been a rough go of it for the Russell 2000 lately. The stock market is off to its worst start ever after one week, and the decline has put a Russell 2000 bear market into view.

But before we get ahead of ourselves, let’s review a chart from my post last spring.

At the time, I highlighted a consolidation range that had lasted through the month of January 2015 which had produced a long term projected price target of 1308.09.

The original chart is posted below for reference.

Russell 2000 Index – 1 year, daily chart

Russell 2000 Index

Russell 2000 Index

 

So, in the past 8 months, what has the Russell done?

Basically everything I’d expected: All price targets were hit in 2014 & 2015, with the exception of the last upside price target of 1308.09. The Russell made a high of 1296 on June 23rd, 2015. That high fell short of my price target by 0.9242%.

Now, let’s look at some charts and see where we are. We’ll start with a 20 year, weekly chart that I’ve been following for several years now. You’ll see that price declined out of the uptrend channel the week of August 17th, 2015 and could only briefly poke it’s head back inside the channel the week of September 14th, 2015.

The lower side of the uptrend channel has now become a resistance level with the last rejection coming in the week of November 30th, 2015. Price is currently down (13.27%) off that trend line. From the high of 1296 to the low that was made the week of January 4th, 2016 is a correction of (19.35%), a whisper away from what could  be the beginning of a technical bear market.

Russell 2000 Index – 20 year, weekly chart

Russell 2000 Index

Russell 2000 Index

 

Now let’s drill down to a shorter time frame and look for clues as to where price may be headed. In the 4 year, daily chart below I’ve highlighted two levels of support that need to hold, 1040.47 and 1009. If both these levels fail to hold, the RUT would be technically very damaged. The next major support level is 942.79.

Russell 2000 Index – 4 year, daily chart

Russell 2000 Index Support Levels

Russell 2000 Index Support Levels

 

And lastly, using my Fibonacci method, the 1 year, daily chart below gives us a target of 1027.34 with 2 resistance levels at 1187.31 and 1212.96. Considering this is a fairly long Fibonacci draw, you will want to draw tighter Fibonacci levels to find shorter term targets, support and resistance.

I’ll update this post as warranted.

Russell 2000 Index – 1 year, daily chart

Russell 2000 Index target = 1027.34

Russell 2000 Index target = 1027.34

 

So there’s a high likelihood that we see a technical Russell 2000 bear market. But the length of that bear market is yet to be determined. Thanks for reading and always use a stop loss!

Dave

This post originally appeared on See It Market