Category Archives: S&P 500 Index

All gaps get closed, eventually. $SPX

By | S&P 500 Index | No Comments

I’ve always subscribed to the theory of “all gaps get closed.” In the chart below, you’ll see the S&P 500 pulled back on June 4th and closed an open gap at 2099.62 and on June 8th it also pulled back and closed a gap at 2088. From the high of May 20th, the total pullback was (2.93%), not exactly the market crash so many are waiting for.

As of this post, which is being made intraday, the S&P is up +1.20%.

S&P 500 gap fill

S&P 500 gap fill

 

Thanks for reading and always use a stop !

Dave

Is there still charge left in the raging bull ? DJIA, COMPQ, SPX and RUT

By | Dow Jones Industrial Average, NASDAQ Composite, Russell 2000 Index, S&P 500 Index | No Comments

Unless you’ve been hiding out in a cave or on a distant planet, you know the stock market has been in a bull phase since early 2009. To add perspective, the S&P has tacked on a whopping +217.87% from March 2009 to the February 2015 high ! It would be natural for one to think the bull ride may be coming to an end. But is it ? Let’s briefly touch on some past posts/charts and see what the numbers said then versus now. I’ll give you links back to previous articles for reference.

First, to get a general view of the market as a whole, refer back to this February 2015 post. In that post I highlighted the following:

  • A correction in September-October of 2014 of (9.83%). That’s close enough to (10%) for me.
  • Two pullbacks of (5.14%) and (5.38%).
  • The average of the past seven pullbacks was (4.72 %).

The shallowness of the pullbacks indicates strength to me, i.e. The bull ain’t done !

The following chart is identical to the one in the February post other than it shows the new high of 2119.59 which was put in this week. (February 23rd – 27th)

S&P 500 Corrections and Pullbacks – 10 Year Weekly Chart

S&P 500 10 year Weekly chart

S&P 500 10 year Weekly chart


 

In this December 2014 post, I posted eight charts, 2 each of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), NASDAQ Composite (COMPQ), S&P 500 (SPX) and the Russell 2000 (RUT). In each series, I used a ten year weekly to show the breakout above the 2007 highs and a one year daily showing current resistance levels or what I deemed  “make or break” levels as volume returned and the “Santa Clause” rally began to wind down.

Since the time of that post, each indice has indeed made new highs; the Dow +0.77%, the NASDAQ +3.61%, the S&P +1.24% and the Russell 2000 +1.54%. These are gains to the current highs , not current price.


 

In my January 2015 post, I highlighted where a (10%) correction would be from the current highs. None of the indices came close to a “correction,” but the pullbacks were as follows:

  • Dow Jones Industrial Average pullback = (4.75%)
  • NASDAQ Composite pullback = (5.23%)
  • S&P 500 Index pullback = (5.03%)
  • Russell 2000 Index pullback = (5.74%)

 

Now that we find ourselves in the first trading week of March 2015, let’s see if the bull is still raging or is there a pack of bears hiding up ahead.

Starting with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), you’ll see in the chart below two areas of major resistance; one at 17991.19 and one at 18103.45. Price has cleared both levels and they will now be support.

Dow Jones Industrial Average – 1 Year Daily chart

Dow Jones Industrial Average – 1 Year Daily chart

Dow Jones Industrial Average – 1 Year Daily chart


 

Next you’ll see the NASDAQ only has one level that I consider important in the context of this post, 4814.95.

NASDAQ Composite 1 Year Chart

NASDAQ Composite 1 Year Chart

NASDAQ Composite 1 Year Chart


 

Moving on to the broader view of the market, the S&P 500 gives us two levels of resistance that have been cleared and are now support at 2079.47 and 2093.55.

S&P 500 Index – 1 Year Daily chart

S&P 500 Index – 1 Year Daily chart

S&P 500 Index – 1 Year Daily chart


 

And lastly, the small cap index, the Russell 2000 also gives us two levels of resistance which have been cleared and are now support at 1213.55 and 1221.44.

Russell 2000 Index – 1 Year Daily Chart

Russell 2000 Index – 1 Year Daily Chart

Russell 2000 Index – 1 Year Daily Chart

It is worth noting that each indice does have open gaps from February that are below the aforementioned support levels. It is not at all unusual to see price come back to close a gap and then push back above the previous support.

Thanks for reading and always use a stop loss order.

Dave

This originally posted on See It Market

 

Update: A 10 Year Look At The SP 500 With Corrections SPX

By | S&P 500 E-Mini Futures, S&P 500 Index | No Comments

Over the past few months, the stock market has seen a few swings. This shouldn’t come as a big surprise. Back in August of 2014, I wrote a research note on the S&P 500 and the lack of a “technical correction.” In stock market lingo, a correction from current highs is generally considered to be -10%, while a pullback is generally less. At that time, the past 4 pullbacks averaged just over 4 percent.

Now that six months have passed, let’s check in to see if we got that S&P 500 correction and where the stock market is likely headed.

In September-October of 2014, we did indeed get a pullback of -9.83% (perhaps close enough). December of 2014 saw a pullback of -5.14%. And the only pullback so far in 2015 was -5.38%.

And for even more context, consider this: the average of the past seven pullbacks is -4.72%.

Those type of pullbacks will likely continue. However, given the Federal Reserves reluctance to raise interest rates, it’s my opinion the stock market still has more upside in 2015. And that could put off another S&P 500 correction for a little while.

S&P 500 Index – 10 year weekly chart

S&P 500 10 year chart.

S&P 500 10 year chart.

 

Thanks for reading,
Dave

 

 

DJIA COMPQ SPX and RUT update

By | Dow Jones Industrial Average, NASDAQ Composite, Russell 2000 Index, S&P 500 Index | No Comments

It’s been a rocky ride thus far for the major stock market indices in 2015. Just 3 weeks ago I wrote about the resistance levels for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), NASDAQ Composite (COMPQ), S&P 500 (SPX) and the Russell 2000 (RUT). I purposely did that post at that particular time because all 4 major stock market indices were at what I deemed “make or break” levels. Simply put, they were all at resistance levels that would either push them down or they would break out above and continue upward in this raging bull market that started in early 2009.

At that time, using my Fibonacci method, these were the resistance levels I was watching (again, those levels can be seen in my post from December 31st).

  • DJIA   Res = 17991.19.       High = 18103.45
  • COMPQ Res = 4810.86.   High = 4814.95
  • SPX Res = 2079.47.            High = 2093.55
  • RUT Res = 1213.55.            High = 1220.81

Now, let’s check back in on the four major market indices and see if they broke out or pulled back at the resistance levels, starting with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA).

In the 1 year chart below, you’ll see that the Dow has not made a new high and has pulled back (4.75%). A technical correction of (10%) would be at 16293.

Dow Jones Industrial Average 1 Year, Daily chart

Dow 1 year, daily chart.

Dow 1 year, daily chart.


 

In the 1 year chart below, you’ll see the NASDAQ has not made a new high and has pulled back (5.23%). A technical correction of (10%) would be at 4333.45.

NASDAQ Composite 1 Year Chart

NASDAQ Composite 1 year chart.

NASDAQ Composite 1 year chart.


 

In the 1 year chart below, you’ll see the S&P 500 has not made a new high and has pulled back (5.03%). A technical correction of (10%) would be at 1883.99.

S&P 500 Index 1 Year, Daily chart

S&P 500 1 year, daily chart.

S&P 500 1 year, daily chart.


 

And last, but certainly not least, the Russell 2000 has made a new high of 1221.44, a minute increase of only +0.05% above the previous high.  A technical correction of (10%) would be at 1099.2.

Russell 2000 Index 1 Year, Daily Chart

Russell 2000 1 year, daily chart.

Russell 2000 1 year, daily chart.

 

If the market continues to pull back, watch for support at these (10%) correction levels as they will be high probability support numbers. And by the same token, if the market starts a march forward, the previous resistance levels will apply as well.

Thanks for reading and always use a stop !

Dave

This post originally appeared on See It Market.

 

 

 

 

 

2015.. Rare, medium or well done ? DJI, COMP, SPX, RUT

By | Dow Jones Industrial Average, NASDAQ Composite, Russell 2000 Index, S&P 500 Index, Traders Education | No Comments

Since Q1 2009 the stock market has, to say the least, been on an absolute rip higher! Will this continue into 2015? Personally, I think there’s more upside to this market, but before we take a look at charts, let’s look at some astonishing performance numbers. From the 2009 lows to the current highs, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), NASDAQ Composite (COMPQ), S&P 500 (SPX) and the Russell 2000 (RUT) have advanced as follows:

  • DJI +179.80%
  • COMP +280.47%
  • SPX + 213.97%
  • RUT +256.34%

Yeah, that’s what I said also, WOW!

Now we’re going to walk through eight charts – a 10 year and a 1 year for each of the aforementioned stock market indices – looking for clues if this upside move will be sustained into 2015.

Dow Jones Industrial Average 10 Year, Weekly chart

Dow 10 year, weekly chart

Dow 10 year, weekly chart

 

In the 1 Year chart below, you’ll see the Dow is at a very crucial point of either breaking out or being rejected near the 2014 high.

Dow Jones Industrial Average 1 Year, Daily chart

Dow 1 Year, Daily chart

Dow 1 year, daily chart

 


Now let’s turn our attention to the NASDAQ and let the charts do the talking.

NASDAQ Composite 10 Year, Weekly chart

NASDAQ Composite 10 year, weekly chart

NASDAQ Composite 10 year, weekly chart

 

In the 1 year chart below, you’ll see the NASDAQ, like the Dow, is at a very crucial point of either breaking out or being rejected near the 2014 high.

NASDAQ Composite 1 Year Chart

NASDAQ Composite 1 year, daily chart

NASDAQ Composite 1 year, daily chart

 


Now let’s take a look at the S&P 500 Index.

Standard and Poor’s 500 Index 10 Year, Weekly chart

S&P 500 Index 10 year, weekly chart

S&P 500 Index 10 year, weekly chart

 

And once again, in the 1 year chart below, like the Dow and NASDAQ,  you can see the S&P is at a very crucial point of either breaking out or being rejected near the 2014 high.

Standard and Poor’s 500 Index 1 Year, Daily chart

S&P 500 Index 1 year, daily chart

S&P 500 Index 1 year, daily chart

 


Lastly, let’s look at the small caps index, The Russell 2000.

Russell 2000 Index 10 Year, Weekly chart

Russell 2000 Index 10 year, weekly chart

Russell 2000 Index 10 year, weekly chart

 

No surprises here either. In the 1 year chart below, you can see the Russell is at a very crucial point of either breaking out or being rejected near the 2014 high.

Russell 2000 Index 1 Year, daily chart

Russell 2000 Index 1 year, daily chart

Russell 2000 Index 1 year, daily chart

 

I wouldn’t be overly concerned with the price action of any of the above major stock market indices the rest of this week but on January 5th, 2015 keep a keen eye on these “make or break” levels as volume returns and the “Santa Clause” period winds down.

Trade safe!

This post originally appeared on See It Market