Category Archives: S&P 500 Index

Stock Market Update: $SPX Fibonacci Price Levels To Watch

By | S&P 500 Index, Updated Charts | No Comments

Less than a month ago, I pondered the question “Is It Time To Wave Goodbye To the Bull Market In 2016?“. In that post, I gave you S&P 500 fibonacci levels to watch for support. Let’s review and provide an update.

At that time, 1867.01 had already been tested so our focus was more on 1820.66 and 1737.92.

In that post from January 19th, 2016, I cautioned readers:

“…you’ll want to monitor this closely for a daily candle CLOSE below 1867.01. That would open the door for another 47 point drop easily.”

Price did close under 1867.01 and that did indeed open the door for two pullbacks of 54.72 and 56.91 points, with the low being 1810.1 on February 11th, 2016. Buyers did come in below the second support level of 1820.66 and were able to push the closing price back above that level.

Key S&P 500 Fibonacci levels are noted in the chart below along with the current correction of (15.20%).

Price did close under 1867.01 and that did indeed open the door for two pullbacks of 54.72 and 56.91 points, with the low being 1810.1 on February 11th, 2016. Buyers did come in below the second support level of 1820.66 and were able to push the closing price above that level.  These levels are noted in the chart below along with the current correction of (15.20%).

   S&P 500 Index – 4 Year, Daily Chart

S&P 500 4 year, daily chart

S&P 500 4 year, daily chart

 

Now let’s drill down to a 3 month time frame and see what our S&P 500 Fibonacci levels are telling us. Currently, the closing price on Friday, February 12th of 1864.78 gives us a short term Fibonacci target of 1877.68 with support levels at 1837.44 and 1830.99. As you can see in the below chart, that target is above our now resistance level of 1867.01.

At this point, you should monitor these levels closely for hints of a continuation of the 7 year bull market or a further correction.

S&P 500 Index – 3 Month, Daily Chart

S&P 500 3 Month, daily chart

S&P 500 3 Month, daily chart

Thanks for reading and always use a stop !

Dave

This post originally appeared on See It Market

 

 

 

 

Will Investors Say Goodbye To The Bull Market In 2016? $SPX

By | S&P 500 Index, Traders Education, Updated Charts | No Comments

Hello 2016, goodbye bull market. Or is it just another market correction?

Markets move in 3 directions:  up, down and sideways. Let’s go take a look at the charts for clues on what this first 2 weeks of 2016 is telling us about the stock market.

Let’s start with a longer term, big picture chart of 10 years highlighting the many market pullbacks and market corrections. In the chart below, you’ll see where the raging bull market began its stampede in Q1 2009. The move from low to high was an impressive +220.14% with shallow pullbacks becoming the norm starting in August of 2013. For the next 2 years the pullbacks averaged in the mid 4 percent range.

As noted on the chart, the 2 most recent market corrections were (12.54%) and (12.97%).

Standard and Poor’s 500 Index – 10 year, weekly chart

S&P 500 Index 10 year, weekly chart

S&P 500 Index 10 year, weekly chart

 

In the chart below, I’ve drilled down to a shorter time frame of 4 years to find areas of support. There are 3 levels that I’ve given extra weight to as far as strong support; 1867.01, 1820.66 and 1737.92

  1. On August 24th, 2015, price made a low of 1867.01, moved up +8.24% before falling back very close to the previous support, making a low of 1871.91 before moving back up a respectful +13.06%.
  2. On October 15th, 2014, price made a low of 1820.66 and then moved up +14.21%.
  3. On February 5th, 2014, price made a low of 1737.92 and then moved up +8.38%.

Standard and Poor’s 500 Index – 4 year, daily chart

S&P 500 4 year, daily chart

S&P 500 4 year, daily chart

 

Now, using my Fibonacci technique, let’s see if we get any fibonacci levels that coincide with those support levels. In the chart below, you’ll see a target of 1868.95 which was hit on Friday, January 15th, 2016, but was not closed. Price fell slightly under that target and the August support level before buyers pushed it back up to close at 1880.33.

From here, you’ll want to monitor this closely for a daily candle CLOSE below 1867.01. That would open the door for another 47 point drop easily. Or, if price can push up from here, 1932.14 is the level you want to see price push through, with substantial volume.

Standard and Poor’s 500 Index – 4 year, daily chart

S&P 500 Index 1 year, daily chart

S&P 500 Index 1 year, daily chart

 

Be careful out there !

Dave

This post originally appeared on See It Market

 

US Stock Market Indices Showing Strength. $DJIA, $COMPQ, $SPX, $RUT

By | Dow Jones Industrial Average, NASDAQ Composite, Russell 2000 Index, S&P 500 Index | No Comments

For the week ending October 30th, I wrote a post on the state of the 4 major US stock market indices. This post included the Dow Jones Industrial Average, NASDAQ Composite, S&P 500, and the Russell 2000, as all were at or near important resistance levels.

These levels would provide clues as to whether the bullish sentiment was still intact or if the market was becoming exhausted.

Now, 5 trading sessions later, let’s take a look at what the market told us. Here’s a rundown of the major stock market indices:

  • The DJIA added +1.39% and has closed above trend line resistance that began in 2011.
  • The NASDAQ added +1.84% and has closed 5 consecutive weekly candles above trend line resistance that began in 2012.
  • The S&P 500 added +0.95% and has closed 3 consecutive weekly candles above trend line resistance that began in 2011.
  • The Russell 2000 added +3.26% and has closed above trend line resistance that began in 2011.

That said, in the following 4 charts, you’ll see where all 4 stock market indices are entering into a tight zone where there is likely to be a tug-of-war between the bulls and bears.

Dow Jones Industrial Average – 5 Year Weekly Chart

Dow - 5 year, weekly chart

Dow – 5 year, weekly chart

 

NASDAQ Composite – 5 Year Weekly Chart

NASDAQ - 5 year, weekly chart

NASDAQ – 5 year, weekly chart

 

Standard & Poor’s 500 Index – 5 Year Weekly Chart

S&P 500 - 5 year, weekly chart

S&P 500 – 5 year, weekly chart

 

Russell 2000 Index – 5 Year Weekly Chart

Russell 2000 - 5 year, weekly chart

Russell 2000 – 5 year, weekly chart

 

In my opinion, swing and/or position traders should watch price very closely going into the Christmas buying season especially if and when they reach the current highs that can be seen on the charts (i.e. watch for breakouts). The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ are particularly close to those overhead levels now.

It’s worth noting there are 843 companies reporting earnings the week of November 9th.

Thanks for reading and remember to always use a stop.

Dave

This post originally appeared on See It Market

All major indexes at “must watch” levels. $DJIA, $COMPQ, $SPX, $RUT

By | Dow Jones Industrial Average, NASDAQ Composite, Russell 2000 Index, S&P 500 Index | One Comment

All the major U.S. stock market indices are at important levels right now. From the Dow Jones Industrial Average to the NASDAQ to the S&P 500 to the Russell 2000, the setups may vary, but the price levels are important.

In the following 4 charts of the major stock market indices, you’ll see long term trend lines that have either been cleared or price is nearing now.

Here’s a high level overview of what the charts are saying and what levels investors should be watching:

  • The Dow is pushing against it now.
  • The NASDAQ has cleared and held above the trend line for 1 month now.
  • The S&P 500 is currently sitting on the trend line.
  • The Russell 2000 is approximately 30 points under the trend line.
  • Above the trend line are highs that will need to be broken to keep the bull market intact.

Dow Jones Industrial Average – 5 year, weekly chart

DJIA - 5 year, weekly

DJIA – 5 year, weekly

 

NASDAQ Composite – 5 year, weekly chart

NASDAQ - 5 year, weekly

NASDAQ – 5 year, weekly

 

Standard & Poor’s 500 Index – 5 year, weekly chart

S&P 500 - 5 year, weekly

S&P 500 – 5 year, weekly

 

Russell 2000 Index – 5 year, weekly chart

Russell 2000 - 5 year, weekly

Russell 2000 – 5 year, weekly

 

Watch these levels closely; they will yield clues as to whether the bull market has more upside or is becoming exhausted.

Thanks for reading and always use a stop.

Dave

This post originally appeared on See It Market

 

 

Standard and Poor’s 500 Index update. Higher prices coming. $SPX

By | S&P 500 Index | No Comments

The past 3 weeks has seen the S&P 500 Index zoom higher by more than 200 points. The rally has brought the index back to within 3 percent of its all-time highs and has the bulls feeling much better.

I thought this would be a good time to review what’s happened in the stock market since my last post here while providing a new market update using my Fibonacci method. I’ll also confirm my upside price target.

Feel free to reference my previous analysis of the S&P 500 (from September). Since that post, here’s what happened with the main stock market index:

  • On September 29th, price looked to test the previous low of 1867.01, putting in a low of 1871.91.
  • Price is up +10.85% from the current low; the close Friday, October 23rd being 2075.15.
  • An open gap has been closed at 2035.73.
  • Two nearby open gaps are at 2079.61 and 2096.92
  • Price is only 2.87% from the all time high.

S&P 500 Index – 10 year, weekly chart

S&P 500 10 year, weekly chart

S&P 500 10 year, weekly chart

 

Going forward, I expect the two open gaps to be closed with the closing of the 2nd gap at 2096.92 putting us within striking distance of the all time high. I would expect some resistance at 2134.72 and still maintain my target of 2249.75 as shown in the 2 year chart below. I’ve also highlighted in green where support has been tested and held.

 S&P 500 Index – 10 year, weekly chart

S&P 500 2 year, daily chart

S&P 500 2 year, daily chart

 

Thanks for reading and always use a stop !

dave

This post originally appeared on See It Market

 

Market Correction Update: Key Fib Support Levels To Watch; Standard & Poor’s 500 Index $SPX

By | S&P 500 Index | No Comments

Yep, Jesse Felder finally shaved his beard off. Huh? What does that have to do with the S&P 500? It means the S&P 500 Index pulled back at least 10% from the high of 2134.72. Yep, that long awaited market correction has happened (is happening).

To be exact, the long awaited stock market correction is shown in the chart below to be (12.54%). That drop happened quickly and felt pretty scary. But it is also important to note that a 12.5 percent decline is a pretty standard market pullback.

The only way we’ll know if it is going to get worse or better from here is to follow key price support levels.

Below is a 1 year chart. The recent lows are are likely an area of focus for both the bulls and the bears. I’ve also highlighted 3 open body gaps above current price.

S&P 500 Index – 1 year, daily chart

S&P 500 (12.54%) correction

S&P 500 (12.54%) correction

 

Using my Fibonacci method on a longer time frame, we can identify 2 support levels at 1890.59 and 1832.98. This also gives us an upside target of 2249.95 on the S&P 500.

In the chart below, you’ll see that the market correction of (12.54%) lands basically dead center of the 2 support levels. It’s worth noting the first support level has been tested and held on 3 occasions. The latter support (1832.98) is a must-hold.

S&P 500 Index – 2 year, daily chart

S&P 500 2 year, daily chart

S&P 500 2 year, daily chart

 

Currently, an “h” pattern is forming which can, but not always, indicate more downside. Going forward, you’ll want to watch for support at 1921.24, 1892.23, 1890.59, 1867.01, and lastly 1832.98. A close below 1832.98 would indicate appreciable weakness.

Thanks for reading and always use a stop!

Dave

This post originally appeared on See It Market

 

 

 

Market Correction In Full Effect For US Stock Market Averages

By | Dow Jones Industrial Average, NASDAQ Composite, Russell 2000 Index, S&P 500 Index | No Comments

Greece couldn’t do it. Poor company earnings along with lower forward guidance couldn’t do it. Not even strong hints of a September rate hike by the Federal Reserve!

A technical market correction in the stock market is typically referred to as a drop of 10 percent from the highs.

It took a slow down in the world’s number two economy, China, to force this stubbornly bull market into a market correction.

Let’s take a look at the 4 major indexes to see where we are after Friday’s gouge of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) where it gave up -530 points.

Three indexes have hit their 10% market correction level with the Standard and Poor’s 500 being shy of the mark. But all four will likely be in correction land when the markets open Monday – the futures market looks very heavy.

Notes are on the charts below.  Click charts to enlarge.

  • Dow Jones Industrial Average = (10.3%)
  • NASDAQ Composite = (10.05%)
  • Standard and Poor’s 500 Index = (7.67%)
  • Russell 2000 Index = (11.08%)

 

Dow Jones Industrial Average – 1 year, daily chart

Dow Jones Industrial Average

Dow Jones Industrial Average

 

NASDAQ Composite – 1 year, daily chart

NASDAQ Composite

NASDAQ Composite

 

Standard and Poor’s 500 Index – 1 year, daily chart

Standard and Poor's 500 Index

Standard and Poor’s 500 Index

 

Russell 2000 Index – 1 year, daily chart

Russell 2000 Index

Russell 2000 Index

 

Thanks for reading and always use a stop loss order.

Dave

This post originally appeared on See It Market

 

All gaps get closed, eventually. $SPX

By | S&P 500 Index | No Comments

I’ve always subscribed to the theory of “all gaps get closed.” In the chart below, you’ll see the S&P 500 pulled back on June 4th and closed an open gap at 2099.62 and on June 8th it also pulled back and closed a gap at 2088. From the high of May 20th, the total pullback was (2.93%), not exactly the market crash so many are waiting for.

As of this post, which is being made intraday, the S&P is up +1.20%.

S&P 500 gap fill

S&P 500 gap fill

 

Thanks for reading and always use a stop !

Dave