Category Archives: S&P 500 E-Mini Futures

Is 4%+ the new correction ? $SPX $SPY $ES_F

By | S&P 500 E-Mini Futures, Traders Education, Updated Charts | No Comments

This is a follow up to a post I originally made at See It Market. (Link will open in a new window)

While doing a 10 year chart of the S&P 500 and measuring the corrections, I noticed a pattern that started in August 2013. Notice how the pullbacks are getting smaller and almost the same percentage ? 4.80%, 4.27% and 4.37%

Below is the original chart.

$SPX 10 year, weekly with corrections.

$SPX 10 year, weekly with corrections.

 

Now, the below chart really has my interest. Why ? The current pullback is 4.34% and price is climbing. So in summary, the last 4 pullbacks are all within 0.6% or less of each other. Coincidence ? Personally, I don’t think so. Computerized trading programs picking price up just before a 5% pullback .. looks that way to me.

This will be very interesting to watch.

$SPX 4.34% pullback

$SPX 4.34% pullback

 

Thx,

Dave

A 10 year look at the S&P 500 with corrections. $SPX

By | S&P 500 E-Mini Futures, Traders Education, Updated Charts | No Comments

Let’s take a look at the S&P 500 from the beginning of the housing/financial fiasco in 2007 – 2008 and the following recovery; albeit Central Bank driven, numbers are numbers.

What has come to be known as The Great Recession, technically occurred from October 8th, 2007 to March 2nd, 2009. The S&P 500 dropped -57.69% in that time period.

Annotated chart below.

October '07 high - March '09 low

October ’07 high – March ’09 low

 

You can see in the chart below that from the low of 666.79, the S&P made a move up of +198.65% to reach an all time high of 1991.39 on July 21st, 2014.

March '09 low - July '14 high

March ’09 low – July ’14 high

 

Now, let’s look closer and see what has occurred during that nearly 200% move up. In the annotated chart below, I’ve noted 12 times the S&P 500 has pulled back at least -4% or more.  What I find interesting is the last 3 pullbacks were -4.80%, -4.27% &- 4.37%, respectively. This tells me the “dip-buyers” are still expecting more upside movement.

$SPX 10 year, weekly with corrections.

$SPX 10 year, weekly with corrections.

 

Thx,

Dave

This was originally posted on See It Market

 

 

Why gaps are important. $ES_F

By | S&P 500 E-Mini Futures, Traders Education | No Comments

This is a follow up post to an article that originally appeared on See It Market. (link will open in a new window)

Price pulled back to the open gap of 1896.5 on Friday, August 8th. The next major support level was 1887.5; the low for that day was 1890.25.

Currently, price has moved up 2.68% from Fridays low. Know where your gaps are !

Thx,

Dave

$ES Support off open gap and Fibonacci level

$ES Support off open gap and Fibonacci level

 

 

S&P 500 E-mini near support levels $ES_F

By | S&P 500 E-Mini Futures, Traders Education | No Comments

The S&P 500 E-mini contract, the ES, is now reaching support levels that I’m watching closely. Let’s start with a full view of a 3 year, daily chart. Since November, 2011, the contract has moved up 917.75 points. Time for a correction ? I would say it’s in progress now. In the chart below you can clearly see what a full blown bull market looks like.

ES 3 year, daily.

ES 3 year, daily

 

Now, let’s drill down a bit; same chart, tighter view. In the chart below you’ll see the move up from April, 2014 to the high in July of 1985.75. The Fibonacci draw gives us a target of 2011.5 with support levels at 1887.5 and 1867.75. There was an open gap at 1919, which is now closed and currently an open gap at 1896.5. I expect price to drop down and at a minimum close that 1896.5 gap. I have also outlined a bear flag that began to form on August 1st and has played out well so far.

If the 1896.5 gap fails to give support, 1887.5 will be the next major support level. A failure of the next level, 1867.75, would reverse the shorter term trend.

ES bear flag

ES bear flag

 

Now, let’s look at the big picture in the chart below. The long term Fibonacci draw gives us a target of 2030 with support levels at 1457.25 and 1365.50. Price would have to pull back and violate both those levels before the 2030 target would be negated.

Can price pull back that far ? Sure it can. Is it likely to happen ? Even with all the geopolitical events that are occurring right now, I don’t see a pullback that far in the near future. Globally, fundamentals are still showing improvement in manufacturing and no Central bank seems in a hurry to raise lending rates.

ES long term target = 2030

ES long term target = 2030

Thx,

Dave

This was originally posted on See It Market

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It’s just numbers, nothing more, nothing less $SPX $RUT $DJI $COMP

By | S&P 500 E-Mini Futures, Traders Education | No Comments

The market is pulling back. The world isn’t ending because of it either.  I see tweets and posts galore referencing doom and gloom.

Keep one thing in mind; if the markets didn’t “correct” from time to time, there really wouldn’t be a market. It would be buy, hold a while, sell, rinse and repeat.

Market corrections are very normal, necessary and should be expected.

Don’t fight the trend, trade what you see, keep calm and use that stop !

Thx,

Dave

ES bear flag

ES bear flag

About this whole “manipulation’ thing.. $GC_F $SI_F $ES_F $SPY $TF_F $RUT

By | Gold Futures, S&P 500 E-Mini Futures, Silver Futures, Traders Education | No Comments

I saw a post recently about gold and silver being “manipulated” or the price being artificial held down by The US Government, Fed, etc..  Let me let you in on a little secret bucko, the whole freakin’ stock market is “manipulated,” whatever that means. I really don’t know other than algorithms than can leap buildings in a single bound ! How the price of metals can be manipulated is above my pay grade.

But here’s the point I’m getting to.. who cares ? Why should you care ? If you know the market is “manipulated,” either leave it alone or go with the flow. If you’re from the South there’s a very good chance you’ve either swam or fished in a river. And you’ve watched it flow downstream. Now, would you try to swim upstream ? NO, you’d go with the flow.

Do the same thing with the market. Forget the numbers, that’s all they are, just numbers, mostly psychological now but they still respond to math; and always will. Draw a chart, follow the path until it changes or you come to a big waterfall.

Always know where you’re going and why.

Thx,

Dave

Changes to Morning Market News & Trading Group

By | Morning Market News, NASDAQ E-Mini Futures, Russell 2000 E-Mini Futures, S&P 500 E-Mini Futures | No Comments

 

You’ve probably noticed I’m no longer sending out the ES draws in the morning. The ES, at one time, was a great vehicle to trade but with the onslaught of HFT, super computer trading, etc it quickly became my least favorite instrument to follow.

I still sent out the ES info. in the mornings for well over 2 years but it’s come time to focus more on what I consider 2 of the most profitable instruments, the $TF_F and the $NQ_F. If you don’t trade these, I would advise you to give them a look.

I’ve also made changes to our group’s trading room that have helped us all become even more profitable. I’ll be doing a free day in the room soon to highlight those changes.
Thx,

Dave