Category Archives: S&P 500 E-Mini Futures

Update on our new Trading Group, Bottom Line Trades

By | Crude Oil Futures, NASDAQ E-Mini Futures, Russell 2000 Index, S&P 500 E-Mini Futures | No Comments

Hi everyone,

Our new venture, Bottom Line Trades, is coming along well 🙂

I wanted to share 4 trades from this week, that as of this post, are showing a profit of +$19,555.00

(CL) Crude oil trade: http://stocktwits.com/message/57548920

(TF) Mini Russell trade: http://stocktwits.com/message/57548871

(NQ) Mini NASDAQ trade: http://stocktwits.com/message/57548831

(ES) Mini S&P trade: http://stocktwits.com/message/57548818

You can see all our charts that are posted publicly here:  http://stocktwits.com/BottomLineTrades

If you’d like to achieve results like this on a consistent basis, feel free to contact us for more information:

http://www.thefibdoctor.com/contact-thefibdoctor/
or http://bottomlinetrades.com/contact/

Thx,

dave

2123.50 target still valid ES

By | S&P 500 E-Mini Futures | No Comments

The current rally on the S&P 500 may be targeting higher prices yet. Why do I say that? Because that’s what my Fibonacci method is telling me. Let’s look at some charts.

Below is a longer term, daily chart of the S&P 500 E-Mini contract (ES) I’ve used for acquiring longer term targets starting back in 2010. All the upside targets have been hit and closed except for the current one at 2123.50, which I fully expect to be hit.

S&P 500 E-Mini – 4 year, Daily chart

ES 4 year, daily chart

ES 4 year, daily chart

 

Now a tighter view of the same chart with a few support levels to be aware of.

S&P 500 E-Mini – 1 year, Daily chart

ES support levels 2034.50 and 2020.25

ES support levels 2034.50 and 2020.25

 

As you can see in the above chart:

  • Support levels are 2034.50 and 2020.25
  • 2034.50 support has been tested and held
  • A “W” pattern is forming confirming my belief the 2123.50 target will be hit.

Thanks for reading and always use a stop !

Dave

This post originally appeared on See It Market

 

Update: A 10 Year Look At The SP 500 With Corrections SPX

By | S&P 500 E-Mini Futures, S&P 500 Index | No Comments

Over the past few months, the stock market has seen a few swings. This shouldn’t come as a big surprise. Back in August of 2014, I wrote a research note on the S&P 500 and the lack of a “technical correction.” In stock market lingo, a correction from current highs is generally considered to be -10%, while a pullback is generally less. At that time, the past 4 pullbacks averaged just over 4 percent.

Now that six months have passed, let’s check in to see if we got that S&P 500 correction and where the stock market is likely headed.

In September-October of 2014, we did indeed get a pullback of -9.83% (perhaps close enough). December of 2014 saw a pullback of -5.14%. And the only pullback so far in 2015 was -5.38%.

And for even more context, consider this: the average of the past seven pullbacks is -4.72%.

Those type of pullbacks will likely continue. However, given the Federal Reserves reluctance to raise interest rates, it’s my opinion the stock market still has more upside in 2015. And that could put off another S&P 500 correction for a little while.

S&P 500 Index – 10 year weekly chart

S&P 500 10 year chart.

S&P 500 10 year chart.

 

Thanks for reading,
Dave

 

 

S&P 500 Futures Closing In On Next Target ES, SPX, SPY

By | S&P 500 E-Mini Futures | No Comments

I posted articles on the S&P 500 futures, the E-mini contract (ES) back in August and November, using my Fibonacci method to provide a status update for traders. Considering that the U.S. equity markets are once again at all time highs, it’s time for another update. So let’s go back and see how things have played out… and look at what may come.

Back in August and November 2014, I did articles on the S&P 500 E-mini contract, the ES. Let’s go back and see how things have played out.

For reference, the August post is here and the November post here.

In both of those posts I talked about more upside targets, open gaps below current price and a probable correction. A correction of exactly 10.0 percent did occur, the gaps were closed, the targets were hit and closed and a new upside target of 2087.25 was obtained using my Fibonacci method. Keep in mind that my method and style of drawing Fibonacci levels is NOT the conventional way most people have been taught to draw fibs.

In the 4 year, daily chart below, you can see the latest target of 2087.25 was hit on December 26th, 2014. As of this writing, the target is still open. If and when it is closed, I will post the new target. Do I think there’s more upside to the market ?  Yes.  And I will continue to be guided by the price action. Thanks for reading and enjoy your weekend!

S&P 500 E-mini contract, ES – 4 Year Daily chart.

ES 4 year, daily chart

ES 4 year, daily chart

 

This article originally appeared on See It Market.

 

 

 

 

 

Updates: Gold, silver, the US dollar and the Standard and Poor’s 500 E-Mini

By | Gold Futures, S&P 500 E-Mini Futures, Silver Futures, US Dollar Index Futures | No Comments

After I post charts and opinions, I like to go back a few months later and see how things have progressed. Today I’ll be updating charts originally posted in July, August and September of 2014. I’ll be covering Gold Futures, Silver Futures, the Standard & Poor’s 500 E-Mini and the US Dollar Index.

On July 27th, I did an article on Gold Futures here. In that post, the highlights were:

  • A longer term target of 1033.4.
  • The consolidation phase of gold since mid-2013 with the trading range increasingly becoming smaller. The trading range narrowed from $252 to $59 on a weekly basis.
  •  At that time, gold was trading at 1308.5.

Lets take a look at an updated chart and see what has transpired in the past 3 months.

In the chart below, you can see gold has broken several support levels on the daily chart as well as the weekly. It’s currently trading at 1173.5 or a decrease of -10.31% since July 27th. The current daily target is 1150.6 and the weekly target is 1138.1.

More importantly, gold closed Friday, October 31st, below a crucial support level of 1179.4. I’ll explain the significance of that level in a separate chart.

Gold Futures 6 month, daily chart

Gold Futures

Gold Futures

 

Now, why is 1179.4 a crucial support level ? In the chart below you’ll see 1179.4 was the low on June 28th, 2013. On December 31st, 2013, gold made a low of 1181.4 and on October 6th, 2014 a low of 1183.3; in essence you have a triple bottom, (if you believe in such things), that has now failed.

It is worth noting that on July 26th, 2010, gold made a low of 1155.6 which could be perceived as a sliver of support for desperate bulls.

Gold Futures 3 year, daily chart

GG closes below 1179.4

GG closes below 1179.4

The above chart of Gold Futures is a textbook example of the point I hope I was able to make in an article I wrote here just recently.

And let’s not forget the Goldman Sachs Precious Metals Index (GPX). In this article from September 10th, I showed 3 levels of support at 1652.66, 1589 and 1584.59. In the below chart you can see all three levels have been broken.

This week saw the GPX give up another -5.04%.

Goldman Sachs Precious Metals Index (GPX)

Goldman Sachs Precious Metals Index

Goldman Sachs Precious Metals Index

 


 

Now onto the S&P 500 E-Mini. On August 8th, 2014, I did a piece on the Standard & Poor’s 500 E-Mini here.

The highlights of that post were:

  • A correction was occurring
  • 2 targets of 2011.5 and 2030.
  • An open gap at 1896.5
  • Central Banks and interest rates

Just a week shy of 3 months since that post, lets see where we are.

  • A correction did occur from September 19th to October 15th. The correction was from 2014.5 to 1813 or 10.0%; a perfect “technical correction.”
  • The target of 2011.5 was hit on September 19th.
  • The target of 2030 is still valid and definitely within striking distance now.
  • The gap at 1896.5 was closed.
  • The US Federal Reserve has ended QE3 and in their October 29th announcement said.. “likely.. to maintain the 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time.. especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run goal”*
  • The Bank of Japan (BOJ) announced on October 31st they would increase their bond purchases (QQE) and will now include purchases of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and real estate investment trusts (J-REITs).*

*FOMC October 29th, 2014 Statement

*BOJ October 31st, 2014 Statement

S&P 500 E-Mini  1 year, daily chart

S&P 500 E-Mini

S&P 500 E-Mini

 

In the annotated chart below, I’ve outlined how the target of 2030 was derived.

S&P 500 E-Mini 4 year, daily chart

S&P 500 E-Mini

S&P 500 E-Mini

 


On August 24th, 2014 , I talked about Silver Futures here. In that post, the focus was on two key support levels that gave way and technically weakened silver appreciably.

  • 26.87 as 1st support
  • 21.455 as 2nd support level.
  • These levels were derived from a 20 year, monthly chart and had held for 18 months and 2 months, respectively.
  • A longer term target of 14.095

So let’s see where silver is trading now and how much, if any, damage was done by the two support levels not being able to hold.

In the chart below you can clearly see Silver continues to weaken, notwithstanding the noticeable buying late Friday.

  • A bear flag formed and did play out.
  • The current target is 16.08 and has been hit but isn’t closed.
  • The longer term target of 14.095 is still valid.
  • Price would have to close above 16.995 in short order to give any validity to Friday’s (10/31/2014) buying.

Silver Futures 1 year, daily chart

Silver Futures

Silver Futures

 


 

On September 12th, 2014, I talked about the strength of the US Dollar here.  In that post I highlighted:

  • 2 areas of consolidation preceding upward moves.
  • The consolidation periods were relatively short; 14 sessions and 6 sessions.

So how’s the dollar been doing in the last 6 weeks ? Still strong and as you can see in the chart below it’s currently at a new multi-year high. After the Bank of Japan’s announcement last Friday, I think the dollar has more room to the upside.

  • Current target = 87.485
  • It is worth noting that there is an open gap at 87.74 on a weekly chart.
  • On the same day that gap was created, a 5 year high was put in at 88.905.

US Dollar Index 1 year, daily chart

US Dollar Index

US Dollar Index

 

Charts were originally posted on @seeitmarket.


 

Thanks for reading, always use a stop and follow the chart !

 

Dave

 

$ES_F 3 year chart. Intermediate term target hit at 2011.5

By | S&P 500 E-Mini Futures | No Comments

$ES_F 3 year, daily chart. Intermediate term target hit at 2011.5. http://stks.co/g15Lj

— David Busick (@TheFibDoctor) Sep. 19 at 05:50 AM