Category Archives: Silver Futures

Precious Metals Report Card: Silver Prices In The Spotlight SI

By | Silver Futures | No Comments

Precious metals have garnered a lot of attention lately, with both gold and silver taking the spotlight. In this post, we’ll dig into silver prices to see what’s happening and what may be in store. We’ll also look back at previous articles I wrote on silver and whether or not our projected target(s) have been met.

Be sure to also read my recent companion article on Gold.

Looking back over the past 8 months, I’ve written a few posts on Silver, highlighting some key levels and price objectives. Here they are for reference:

In those articles, I highlighted the following:

  • Long term, 20 year support levels failed at 26.87 and 21.455.
  • A longer term target of 14.095 for silver prices.

So, how did we do on our 14.095 call? Not too bad actually with a low of 14.155 being put in on December 1st 2014, which was 0.06 shy of our projected target. From that low, Silver prices were able to rally a respectable 30.73%  to 18.505 before experiencing a (17.53%) correction from January to March 2015.

In the chart below, I’ve highlighted the low of 14.155, the rally back to 18.505, and the subsequent correction back to 15.26.

Silver Futures – 1 Year, Daily Chart

Silver Futures - 1 year, Daily chart.

Silver Futures – 1 year, Daily chart.

 

Now let’s drill down to a 6 month, daily chart and see what my unconventional style of drawing Fibonacci levels tells us. In the chart below you’ll see price has been able to climb above a downtrend line and has hit a short term target of 17.145 but has been unable to close above it. If price is able to close above 17.145, the next major resistance level will be the high of January, 2015 at 18.505.

At this time, I still maintain my call for lower prices on Silver Futures.

Silver Futures – 6 Month, Daily chart

Silver Futures - 6 Month, Daily chart

Silver Futures – 6 Month, Daily chart

 

Thanks for reading and remember to always use a stop loss order when trading!

Dave

This post originally appeared on See It Market

 

 

 

 

 

 

Precious Metals Report Card: Gold Futures Near Key Level GC

By | Silver Futures | No Comments

Wow, it seems like the daily news stream is almost overflowing. The Middle East conflict(s), crude oil prices, unemployment levels, manufacturing levels, a downward revision of Q1 2015 GDP, PMI, the Federal Reserve’s hint of a rate hike, etc. So how is all this affecting the price of Gold Futures?

Not only has Spring sprung but Gold Futures prices have sprung up a bit recently. Let’s go back and review our projections from previous articles that are listed below for reference:

 

 

Here’s an overview of the highlights from those research posts:

  • Gold Futures has a long-term target of 1033.4.
  • There has been continued weakness in the Goldman Sachs Precious Metals Index (GPX).
  • The 1179.4 level for Gold is significant.

Now, let’s take a look and see how Gold Futures are faring now. We’ll start with a very basic 5 year chart highlighting the downward channel

Gold Futures 5 Year, Weekly chart

Gold Futures 5 Year, Weekly chart

Gold Futures 5 Year, Weekly chart

 

Let’s look at that same channel, only this time we’ll use a 20 year, monthly chart where the downward channel becomes more obvious.

Gold Futures 20 Year, Monthly chart

Gold Futures 20 Year, Monthly chart

Gold Futures 20 Year, Monthly chart

 

Drilling down to a 6 month, daily chart yields us more clues as to where gold futures may be headed. In the chart below, we can see opposing targets on the daily versus the weekly. Currently the daily target is 1227.7 and the weekly target is 1148.7 which was hit and provided support with a subsequent move up of 6.16% before a pullback to close at 1198.6 on Friday, March 27th, 2014. Using my Fibonacci method, a close at 1200.1 or higher would have created an upside weekly target.

It’s worthy to note that Friday’s close was only 0.70 above a level that would have created a new downside daily target.

Gold Futures 6 Month, Daily chart

Gold Futures 6 Month, Daily chart

Gold Futures 6 Month, Daily chart

 

Putting this all together, Gold prices made a low of 1130.4 on November 7th, 2014 and that level was recently tested. The critical support level of 1179.4 was breached on both occasions but has not been able to hold price under it. Now we’ll need to watch the fibs for shorter-term price movements.

However, at this time, I still maintain my longer term Gold Futures target of 1033.4.

Thanks for reading and remember to always use a stop loss order!

Dave

This post originally appeared on See It Market

 

 

Will Silver Prices Hit New Lows In 2015? SI

By | Silver Futures | No Comments

There’s been quite a bit of volatility with Silver prices. After a nice rally into early 2015, the past 2 weeks has ushered in some price weakness. And this begs the question: Do lower prices loom for Silver in 2015?

Back in August, 2014, I did an article on Silver Futures (SI) where I used my custom Fibonacci method to ascertain probable targets for silver in the short and long term. I talked about three targets, the shorter term ones being nearly identical at 19.355 and 19.205. Both of those short term targets were hit and closed.

The third and longer term projected target was 14.095. At that time, silver futures were trading at 19.395 so a pullback of (27.32%) seemed somewhat of a stretch. But was it a too far stretch? Let’s dig in and see.

In the chart below, you can see the target of 14.095 was missed by 0.06¢ with a current low being put in at 14.155.

Silver Futures 1 year, daily chart.

Silver Futures 1 year, daily chart.


 

Now let’s move in for a tighter view and see if the 14.095 target still looks valid. In the below chart, you’ll see a daily, short term target of 18.42 has been hit and so far rejected 4 times. On Friday, February 6th, 2015 price pulled back to and bounced off of the support area of 16.69 – 16.41. Watch these two levels on silver futures as a close below 16.41 will give us a new, short term, downside target.

Silver Futures Daily chart.

Silver Futures Daily chart.

 

Silver futures’ retreat from the March, 2014 high to the December, 2015 low was (36.18%).

I still maintain my call for lower silver prices.

Thanks for reading and always use a stop.

Dave

This post originally appeared on See It Market

Updates: Gold, silver, the US dollar and the Standard and Poor’s 500 E-Mini

By | Gold Futures, S&P 500 E-Mini Futures, Silver Futures, US Dollar Index Futures | No Comments

After I post charts and opinions, I like to go back a few months later and see how things have progressed. Today I’ll be updating charts originally posted in July, August and September of 2014. I’ll be covering Gold Futures, Silver Futures, the Standard & Poor’s 500 E-Mini and the US Dollar Index.

On July 27th, I did an article on Gold Futures here. In that post, the highlights were:

  • A longer term target of 1033.4.
  • The consolidation phase of gold since mid-2013 with the trading range increasingly becoming smaller. The trading range narrowed from $252 to $59 on a weekly basis.
  •  At that time, gold was trading at 1308.5.

Lets take a look at an updated chart and see what has transpired in the past 3 months.

In the chart below, you can see gold has broken several support levels on the daily chart as well as the weekly. It’s currently trading at 1173.5 or a decrease of -10.31% since July 27th. The current daily target is 1150.6 and the weekly target is 1138.1.

More importantly, gold closed Friday, October 31st, below a crucial support level of 1179.4. I’ll explain the significance of that level in a separate chart.

Gold Futures 6 month, daily chart

Gold Futures

Gold Futures

 

Now, why is 1179.4 a crucial support level ? In the chart below you’ll see 1179.4 was the low on June 28th, 2013. On December 31st, 2013, gold made a low of 1181.4 and on October 6th, 2014 a low of 1183.3; in essence you have a triple bottom, (if you believe in such things), that has now failed.

It is worth noting that on July 26th, 2010, gold made a low of 1155.6 which could be perceived as a sliver of support for desperate bulls.

Gold Futures 3 year, daily chart

GG closes below 1179.4

GG closes below 1179.4

The above chart of Gold Futures is a textbook example of the point I hope I was able to make in an article I wrote here just recently.

And let’s not forget the Goldman Sachs Precious Metals Index (GPX). In this article from September 10th, I showed 3 levels of support at 1652.66, 1589 and 1584.59. In the below chart you can see all three levels have been broken.

This week saw the GPX give up another -5.04%.

Goldman Sachs Precious Metals Index (GPX)

Goldman Sachs Precious Metals Index

Goldman Sachs Precious Metals Index

 


 

Now onto the S&P 500 E-Mini. On August 8th, 2014, I did a piece on the Standard & Poor’s 500 E-Mini here.

The highlights of that post were:

  • A correction was occurring
  • 2 targets of 2011.5 and 2030.
  • An open gap at 1896.5
  • Central Banks and interest rates

Just a week shy of 3 months since that post, lets see where we are.

  • A correction did occur from September 19th to October 15th. The correction was from 2014.5 to 1813 or 10.0%; a perfect “technical correction.”
  • The target of 2011.5 was hit on September 19th.
  • The target of 2030 is still valid and definitely within striking distance now.
  • The gap at 1896.5 was closed.
  • The US Federal Reserve has ended QE3 and in their October 29th announcement said.. “likely.. to maintain the 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time.. especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run goal”*
  • The Bank of Japan (BOJ) announced on October 31st they would increase their bond purchases (QQE) and will now include purchases of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and real estate investment trusts (J-REITs).*

*FOMC October 29th, 2014 Statement

*BOJ October 31st, 2014 Statement

S&P 500 E-Mini  1 year, daily chart

S&P 500 E-Mini

S&P 500 E-Mini

 

In the annotated chart below, I’ve outlined how the target of 2030 was derived.

S&P 500 E-Mini 4 year, daily chart

S&P 500 E-Mini

S&P 500 E-Mini

 


On August 24th, 2014 , I talked about Silver Futures here. In that post, the focus was on two key support levels that gave way and technically weakened silver appreciably.

  • 26.87 as 1st support
  • 21.455 as 2nd support level.
  • These levels were derived from a 20 year, monthly chart and had held for 18 months and 2 months, respectively.
  • A longer term target of 14.095

So let’s see where silver is trading now and how much, if any, damage was done by the two support levels not being able to hold.

In the chart below you can clearly see Silver continues to weaken, notwithstanding the noticeable buying late Friday.

  • A bear flag formed and did play out.
  • The current target is 16.08 and has been hit but isn’t closed.
  • The longer term target of 14.095 is still valid.
  • Price would have to close above 16.995 in short order to give any validity to Friday’s (10/31/2014) buying.

Silver Futures 1 year, daily chart

Silver Futures

Silver Futures

 


 

On September 12th, 2014, I talked about the strength of the US Dollar here.  In that post I highlighted:

  • 2 areas of consolidation preceding upward moves.
  • The consolidation periods were relatively short; 14 sessions and 6 sessions.

So how’s the dollar been doing in the last 6 weeks ? Still strong and as you can see in the chart below it’s currently at a new multi-year high. After the Bank of Japan’s announcement last Friday, I think the dollar has more room to the upside.

  • Current target = 87.485
  • It is worth noting that there is an open gap at 87.74 on a weekly chart.
  • On the same day that gap was created, a 5 year high was put in at 88.905.

US Dollar Index 1 year, daily chart

US Dollar Index

US Dollar Index

 

Charts were originally posted on @seeitmarket.


 

Thanks for reading, always use a stop and follow the chart !

 

Dave

 

Precious metals continue to weaken $GC, $GPX $SI

By | Gold Futures, Silver Futures | No Comments

Both gold and silver continue to lose favor with investors as evidenced by precious metals continued weakness into September. This also shows up in technical analysis, so let’s review some charts.

Starting with a broader look, let’s break down the 3 year chart below of the Goldman Sachs Precious Metals Index (GPX).

There are three very important support levels to watch right now:

  • 1589 – The weekly low in June, 2013
  • 1584.59 – The weekly low in December, 2013
  • 1652.66 – This is arguably the most important level. It is the weekly low of June 2014. And the current low of 1664.01 is only $11.35 from that all important June ’14 low. A close below this level on a weekly candle will only add more fuel for the precious metals bears.

Precious Metals Index Chart

GS Precious Metals Index

GS Precious Metals Index

 

Now let’s look at a daily Gold chart. The daily target is 1255 which has been hit 3 times. Price will normally hit a target and then move away from it in the opposite direction. As you can clearly see, the bounces have been very weak and as I type this, price has dropped well below the target.

The weekly target of 1242.4 is certainly within striking distance now. A close below this weekly target will significantly weaken gold.

Gold Futures Weekly Chart

Gold weekly target of 1242.4

Gold weekly target of 1242.4

 

And lastly, Silver. On a daily chart, silver has hit it’s latest target of 18.915. As we saw in the gold chart, the bounce has been very weak. The number to watch right now is 18.615, the low of May 30th, 2014. A close below that level will also significantly weaken silver.

Silver Futures Daily Chart

Silver daily target of 18.915

Silver daily target of 18.915

 

Thx,

Dave

 

This post originally appeared on See It Market.

Has silver lost it’s luster ? A long term view $SI_F

By | Silver Futures | No Comments

Let’s start with a long term view of silver. From the low of $3.92 in 1993 to the high of $49.82 in 2011, price increased by a massive +1170.91% (a +12 bagger) with +493.09% of the move occurring in just 30 months from October, 2008 to April, 2011.

In the chart below, you can see there were 2 Fibonacci support levels of 26.87 and 21.455. Price was able to hold the 1st support level for 18 months before dropping down to the 2nd support level, which could only hold 2 months.

Silver 20 year, monthly

Silver 20 year, monthly

 

Now let’s start drilling down and get a better idea of where silver may be headed.  We’ll start with a 10 year, monthly chart with the new Fibonacci draw that was created after price failed to hold 21.455.

In the chart below, you’ll see 2 resistance levels; 26.805 and 28.845 and a target of 14.095.

Silver 10 year, monthly

Silver 10 year, monthly

 

Now, let’s drill down to some shorter time frames. In the 6 month, weekly chart below, using my Fibonacci drawing method, I’ve derived a target of 19.355 which was hit and held for the week of August 18th, 2014. The overhead resistance levels are 19.83 and 19.905.

Silver 6 month, weekly

Silver 6 month, weekly

 

Again, using my Fibonacci drawing method on a 1 year, daily chart, we get a target of 19.205 with resistance at 20.14 and 20.29. Considering this daily target of 19.205 and the weekly target of 19.355 I would say $19 and change is the number that should be monitored closely for more weakness.

I’ll continue to monitor this and update the chart as needed.

Silver 1 year, daily

Silver 1 year, daily

 

Thx,

Dave

This post originally appeared on See It Market.

 

 

 

 

About this whole “manipulation’ thing.. $GC_F $SI_F $ES_F $SPY $TF_F $RUT

By | Gold Futures, S&P 500 E-Mini Futures, Silver Futures, Traders Education | No Comments

I saw a post recently about gold and silver being “manipulated” or the price being artificial held down by The US Government, Fed, etc..  Let me let you in on a little secret bucko, the whole freakin’ stock market is “manipulated,” whatever that means. I really don’t know other than algorithms than can leap buildings in a single bound ! How the price of metals can be manipulated is above my pay grade.

But here’s the point I’m getting to.. who cares ? Why should you care ? If you know the market is “manipulated,” either leave it alone or go with the flow. If you’re from the South there’s a very good chance you’ve either swam or fished in a river. And you’ve watched it flow downstream. Now, would you try to swim upstream ? NO, you’d go with the flow.

Do the same thing with the market. Forget the numbers, that’s all they are, just numbers, mostly psychological now but they still respond to math; and always will. Draw a chart, follow the path until it changes or you come to a big waterfall.

Always know where you’re going and why.

Thx,

Dave