Category Archives: Gold Futures

Precious metals continue to weaken $GC, $GPX $SI

By | Gold Futures, Silver Futures | No Comments

Both gold and silver continue to lose favor with investors as evidenced by precious metals continued weakness into September. This also shows up in technical analysis, so let’s review some charts.

Starting with a broader look, let’s break down the 3 year chart below of the Goldman Sachs Precious Metals Index (GPX).

There are three very important support levels to watch right now:

  • 1589 – The weekly low in June, 2013
  • 1584.59 – The weekly low in December, 2013
  • 1652.66 – This is arguably the most important level. It is the weekly low of June 2014. And the current low of 1664.01 is only $11.35 from that all important June ’14 low. A close below this level on a weekly candle will only add more fuel for the precious metals bears.

Precious Metals Index Chart

GS Precious Metals Index

GS Precious Metals Index

 

Now let’s look at a daily Gold chart. The daily target is 1255 which has been hit 3 times. Price will normally hit a target and then move away from it in the opposite direction. As you can clearly see, the bounces have been very weak and as I type this, price has dropped well below the target.

The weekly target of 1242.4 is certainly within striking distance now. A close below this weekly target will significantly weaken gold.

Gold Futures Weekly Chart

Gold weekly target of 1242.4

Gold weekly target of 1242.4

 

And lastly, Silver. On a daily chart, silver has hit it’s latest target of 18.915. As we saw in the gold chart, the bounce has been very weak. The number to watch right now is 18.615, the low of May 30th, 2014. A close below that level will also significantly weaken silver.

Silver Futures Daily Chart

Silver daily target of 18.915

Silver daily target of 18.915

 

Thx,

Dave

 

This post originally appeared on See It Market.

$GC_F 5 year, weekly. Currently in sup. zone

By | Gold Futures | No Comments

$GC_F 5 year, weekly. Currently in sup. zone. ||| Daily chart levels: http://stks.co/s0h0a http://stks.co/e0v26

— David Busick (@TheFibDoctor) Aug. 21 at 08:01 AM

5 year, weekly chart. Gold analysis without the noise, just the fibs Ma’am.

By | Gold Futures | No Comments

No COT reports, no China or India demand, no consideration of  so called “manipulation, ” just good old fashioned TA using a very simple Fibonacci method.

Let’s start with a 5 year, weekly chart.  Click chart for larger image.

Gold 5 year, weekly

Gold 5 year, weekly

As you can see, gold has been consolidating since mid 2013 and the “wedge” is getting tighter.  Currently, I have a downside target of 1033.4 with overhead resistance at 1488.8 and 1561.8.  Gold would have to break through and close above these 2 levels with volume to have any chance of reclaiming its September 2011 high (1923.7).

Another crucial level is support at 1179.4. That low was made in June 2013 and has held so far. A close below 1179.4 would technically weaken gold a great deal.

Gold consolidation since mid '13

Gold consolidation since mid ’13

Let’s look at the wedge without the fib drawing in the above chart. The range has narrowed from $252 to $152 and now is in a $59 range.

Now let’s begin to break the chart down to get a more clear picture of important support and resistance levels.

Weekly target of 1341.9 hit and rejected.

Weekly target of 1341.9 hit and rejected.

This is the same 5 year, weekly chart. I’ve drawn what I call a “fib within a fib.”  This is nothing more than drawing shorter term Fibonacci levels inside the larger, multi-year levels.

As you can see, the target of 1341.9 was hit and rejected the week of July 7, 2014. The 2 support levels are 1281.4 and 1271.6. A close above 1341.9 or a close below 1271.6 would constitute a new draw.

I could continue to break the chart down into small time frames, fibs within fibs, until you get all the way down to daily levels. For now, I think these longer time frames are more important to monitor rather than drilling down to shorter time frames. This eliminates a tremendous amount of the “noise” inherently associated with the shiny metal.

Thx,

Dave

This was originally posted on See It Market

 

 

About this whole “manipulation’ thing.. $GC_F $SI_F $ES_F $SPY $TF_F $RUT

By | Gold Futures, S&P 500 E-Mini Futures, Silver Futures, Traders Education | No Comments

I saw a post recently about gold and silver being “manipulated” or the price being artificial held down by The US Government, Fed, etc..  Let me let you in on a little secret bucko, the whole freakin’ stock market is “manipulated,” whatever that means. I really don’t know other than algorithms than can leap buildings in a single bound ! How the price of metals can be manipulated is above my pay grade.

But here’s the point I’m getting to.. who cares ? Why should you care ? If you know the market is “manipulated,” either leave it alone or go with the flow. If you’re from the South there’s a very good chance you’ve either swam or fished in a river. And you’ve watched it flow downstream. Now, would you try to swim upstream ? NO, you’d go with the flow.

Do the same thing with the market. Forget the numbers, that’s all they are, just numbers, mostly psychological now but they still respond to math; and always will. Draw a chart, follow the path until it changes or you come to a big waterfall.

Always know where you’re going and why.

Thx,

Dave

Gold – 5 year, weekly updated chart $GC_F

By | Gold Futures | No Comments

My last chart of gold was posted back in December 2013 so I thought it would be a good time to revisit the chart.. and not much has changed.

Here’s the chart from December ’13:

Gold target = 1033.4

Gold target = 1033.4

As you can see, gold is still in the zone of 1179.4 support – 1488.8 resistance levels.

Gold has some major levels to break through to the upside; 1488.8 & 1561.8 being the first two major levels.

gold 5 year chart

5 year, weekly chart

The above chart is also a 5 year weekly chart. I’ve drawn a smaller fib inside the larger one to show a better perspective.

Thx,

Dave

5 year, weekly chart of gold. Target = $1033 $GC_F

By | Gold Futures | One Comment

I haven’t posted a chart of gold in a while so here’s some numbers to chew on.

Gold is near the weekly low of 6/24/2013 = 1179.4

That would be where the start of an “h” pattern (down) or a “W” pattern (Up) occurs.

If price can push under 1179 with conviction, the target = 1033.4

There will be support from the week of 2/1/2010 at 1044.5

If support holds in the 1179 area, 1st resistance is = 1488.8

The next MAJOR support is the 5 year low of $754.1

Notes are on chart:

Gold  target = 1033.4

Gold target = 1033.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

On a shorter term there’s a target of 1222.1 that’s been hit but not closed. Until its closed, it will be support.

Gold target = 1222.1

Gold target = 1222.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

Thx,

dave

$GC_F Gold closes below a major support level

By | Gold Futures | No Comments

On Friday, April 12th 2013, gold dropped $114 to close at $1476.1 and thereby breaking a major support level of $1543.9.  Just a couple days earlier, Goldman Sachs, $GS, issued a letter to it’s clients to “short gold.”

In my very humble opinion, the bull run in gold is very far from over.

And would you be surprised to find out later that GS will be buying gold after so many are shaken out ?

If you have any questions, [email protected]

Thx,

Dave

Click here for prior chart

GC_F Gold target = 1400

Gold futures target = 1400

 

$GC_F 1 year, daily chart. Gold futures holding support levels.

By | Gold Futures | No Comments

There are as many opinions on the direction of the price of gold now as there are pretty girls in the Carolinas (that’s a lot), so I thought let’s do the logical thing and see what Mr. Chart says.

According to Mr. Chart and Mr. Fibonacci gold is holding at support levels of 1543.9 and 1616.4 with a projected target of 2068.7.

To break this uptrend, a daily candle would have to close below the 61.8% level of 1543.9.

If you have any questions, [email protected]

Thx,

dave

GC_F 1 year, daily chart. Support levels holding.

GC_F 1 year, daily chart. Support levels holding.

 

$GC_F 1 year, daily chart. Open gap closed, support level held.

By | Gold Futures | No Comments

On Friday, September 23rd, 2011 the gold futures contract experienced a $126 swing and in the process broke through a Fibonacci support level at 1698.1, closed an open daily gap at 1665.8 and hit a second Fibonacci support level of 1646.2. The session low was 1631.7 but price closed above 61.8% support level of 1646.2 leaving the uptrend in tact and a target of 2021.6 still valid.

Click here for a chart of  silver related to this post.

Now I will wait to see if buyers step into gold and will then double my silver bullion holdings.

If you have any questions, [email protected]

Thx,

dave

$GC_F Second support of 1626.2 holds