Category Archives: Gold Futures

Gold futures update, tread lightly gold bugs $GC

By | Gold Futures | No Comments

Recently, I’ve only been charting gold futures on a weekly level. The weekly Fibonacci draw is green. It has a target of 1287.4 and two support levels of 1214.2 and 1202.5. As of this writing, gold has just tested the lower support level of 1202.5 (current low = 1202.7)

Gold Futures – Weekly Fibonacci levels

Gold Futures - Weekly chart

Gold Futures – Weekly chart

 

In the chart below, let’s look at some daily levels also. The current daily target is 1283.3 with support at 1222.8 and 1213. As you can see in the daily chart below, those support levels will fail today, February 15th, 2016. This will create a downside, daily target of around 1188.3. I’ll update charts as needed.

Gold Futures – 6 Month, Daily Chart

Gold Futures - Daily Chart

Gold Futures – Daily Chart

 

Thanks for reading and always use a stop !

Dave

 

Gold Futures Prices Decline Towards Key Price Target $GC_F

By | Gold Futures, Traders Education, Updated Charts | No Comments

After the huge bull market that ended in 2011, Gold prices have done nothing but wring optimism out of Gold bugs at every turn. As many investors are aware, Gold has been a falling asset for the past 4 years.

In previous posts, I’ve mentioned a certain price level for Gold futures many times:  1179.4.

1179.4 was the low on June 28th, 2013 and a level that gold futures tested on both sides many times in 2014 & 2015. However that level sustained a significant breach this past summer. And in late October 2015 that level marked the unwinding of any bullish case one could currently make for gold, as a retest rally failed and sent gold tumbling towards its multi-year target of 1033.4.  I wrote about this gold price target back in 2013 and Gold is now clearly within striking distance.

So, how did I derive a target that far out ? Using a proprietary Fibonacci method I co-developed several years ago, which I like to call “One shot, One kill,” I identified what I determined to be two swing levels that would yield a long term target as well as 2 resistance levels that were never tested.

Not being able to test even the first resistance level was one of many clues that gold futures were no longer a “flight to safety.”  I saw several so-called gold experts calling for gold prices anywhere from $2500 to $10,000 an ounce. Obviously they were trading their heart and not the chart.

As you can see in the 4 year, daily chart below, swing point 1 was 1798.1, the high on October 5th, 2012. Swing point 2 was identified at 1179.4, the low on June 28th, 2013. And here we are nearly 2 1/2 years later and less than $23 from the target.

Gold Futures – 4 year, daily chart

Gold Futures - 4 year, daily chart

Gold Futures – 4 year, daily chart

 

So, where does gold go from here ? I full expect the target to be hit and will likely provide some support, very likely temporary support.

Until the 1033.4 target is closed, I can’t derive a new downside target but I’ll leave you with this final chart to ponder on (Hint: It doesn’t look good for gold bulls & bugs over the intermediate term)

Gold Futures – 10 year, weekly chart

Gold Futures - 10 year, weekly chart

Gold Futures – 10 year, weekly chart

 

It’s also worthy to note that “half-way back” has been broken on the 10 year chart. Ironically, a secondary Fibonacci level that could lend some support is only $4.60 above the 1033.4 target.

Thanks for reading and always trade the charts, not your heart !

Dave

This post originally appeared on See It Market

 

 

 

Gold Futures Update: Choppy With 1033.40 Target Still Valid. GC

By | Gold Futures | No Comments

The past two months have seen Gold prices trade in a range of $1130-$1230. And after slipping a bit this morning on a Greek vote that failed to elect a President, Gold futures are trading around $1193/oz. So where is gold and whats price telling us from an intermediate and macro perspective.

Note that I provided two update posts on gold futures in November (11/3 here and 11/26 here), as well as another note in July 2014, making the case for lower Gold prices.

The gist of all three posts was to highlight daily and weekly targets, support and resistance levels, and show a longer term target of 1033.40 for Gold futures (which is still valid).

So lets take a look and see how the price of Gold Futures is faring now as 2014 draws to a close.

Starting with a 5 year, weekly chart, you can see where I’ve drawn a fib within a fib. This is nothing more than shorter term Fibonacci levels drawn inside a larger one. In the chart below, you’ll see a weekly target of 1262 and the aforementioned longer term target of 1033.40.

Gold Futures 5 Year, Weekly chart

Gold Futures 5 year, weekly chart.

Gold Futures 5 year, weekly chart.

 

Now let’s drill down to a 1 year, weekly chart and find our support levels. In the chart below, you’ll see 2 weekly support levels; 1190.4 & 1178.9, both of which have been hit and held. Although price has been able to hold these levels, the last two weeks have shown some weakness. The weekly target is 1262.  In the last 3 weeks, price has made a high of 1239, $23 shy of the target.

Gold Futures 1 Year, Weekly chart

Gold Futures 1 year, weekly chart.

Gold Futures 1 year, weekly chart.

 

Now let’s go in for a tighter look using a daily chart. Looking at the complete year of 2014, you’ll see Gold Futures are basically back to where they began; actually price is currently $26.30 lower than the close on January 2nd, 2014.

The current short term daily target is 1239.7 with two support levels at 1181.4 and 1172. Both support levels have been hit and held but the target has not been hit.

At this time, I’m maintaining my long term target of 1033.4.

Gold Futures 1 year, Daily chart

Gold Futures 1 Year, Daily chart.

Gold Futures 1 Year, Daily chart.

Thanks for reading !

This post originally appeared on See It Market

 

Gold Futures at a weekly resistance level. $GC_F $GLD

By | Gold Futures | No Comments

It’s been a wild ride for Gold prices of late. After a big selloff into early November, Gold futures have rallied back to $1200/oz. But let’s step back for a moment and recap the price action. Just over 3 weeks ago I did an article on Gold Futures. In that article the highlights were:

  • A  current daily target of 1150.6.
  • A weekly target of 1138.1.
  • The significance of the 1179.4 support level.
  • 3 levels of support at 1652.66, 1589 and 1584.59 on the Goldman Sachs Precious Metals Index (GPX)

Since that time, the daily target of 1150.6 was hit as well as the weekly target of 1138.1.  Gold found support just below the weekly target at 1130.4 and has been able to push up a respectable 6.82% to make a high of 1207.6 on November 21st. At the time of this post, gold is currently trading in the 1198 – 1200 range.

In the chart below, you can clearly see that gold is struggling to get above the weekly resistance levels of 1208.1 and 1219.3. Not being able to reach even the first weekly resistance level (although it came close) should give bulls reason for concern.

Gold Futures  1 year, weekly chart.

Gold Futures

Gold Futures 1 year weekly

 

Now let’s drill down a bit and look at Gold Futures on a daily basis. In the chart below you can see price was able to push up enough to create an upside Fibonacci target on the daily chart of 1217.8.  That is also an area of confluence with the weekly second resistance level being 1219.3 which I suspect will be strong resistance.

If gold is able to push through these levels, there are many more resistance levels it would have to clear before bulls could comfortably claim a foothold.

Gold Futures daily

Gold Futures daily

 

Now to the Goldman Sachs Precious Metals Index (GPX). It had previously broken 3 support levels of 1652.66, 1589 and 1584.59. As of this post, it is currently at 1580.55. The preceding 3 levels of support have now become resistance.

Goldman Sachs Precious Metals Index (GPX)

Goldman Sachs Precious Metals Index (GPX)

 

Always use a stop and thanks for reading !
Dave

This post originally appeared on See It Market.

 

Updates: Gold, silver, the US dollar and the Standard and Poor’s 500 E-Mini

By | Gold Futures, S&P 500 E-Mini Futures, Silver Futures, US Dollar Index Futures | No Comments

After I post charts and opinions, I like to go back a few months later and see how things have progressed. Today I’ll be updating charts originally posted in July, August and September of 2014. I’ll be covering Gold Futures, Silver Futures, the Standard & Poor’s 500 E-Mini and the US Dollar Index.

On July 27th, I did an article on Gold Futures here. In that post, the highlights were:

  • A longer term target of 1033.4.
  • The consolidation phase of gold since mid-2013 with the trading range increasingly becoming smaller. The trading range narrowed from $252 to $59 on a weekly basis.
  •  At that time, gold was trading at 1308.5.

Lets take a look at an updated chart and see what has transpired in the past 3 months.

In the chart below, you can see gold has broken several support levels on the daily chart as well as the weekly. It’s currently trading at 1173.5 or a decrease of -10.31% since July 27th. The current daily target is 1150.6 and the weekly target is 1138.1.

More importantly, gold closed Friday, October 31st, below a crucial support level of 1179.4. I’ll explain the significance of that level in a separate chart.

Gold Futures 6 month, daily chart

Gold Futures

Gold Futures

 

Now, why is 1179.4 a crucial support level ? In the chart below you’ll see 1179.4 was the low on June 28th, 2013. On December 31st, 2013, gold made a low of 1181.4 and on October 6th, 2014 a low of 1183.3; in essence you have a triple bottom, (if you believe in such things), that has now failed.

It is worth noting that on July 26th, 2010, gold made a low of 1155.6 which could be perceived as a sliver of support for desperate bulls.

Gold Futures 3 year, daily chart

GG closes below 1179.4

GG closes below 1179.4

The above chart of Gold Futures is a textbook example of the point I hope I was able to make in an article I wrote here just recently.

And let’s not forget the Goldman Sachs Precious Metals Index (GPX). In this article from September 10th, I showed 3 levels of support at 1652.66, 1589 and 1584.59. In the below chart you can see all three levels have been broken.

This week saw the GPX give up another -5.04%.

Goldman Sachs Precious Metals Index (GPX)

Goldman Sachs Precious Metals Index

Goldman Sachs Precious Metals Index

 


 

Now onto the S&P 500 E-Mini. On August 8th, 2014, I did a piece on the Standard & Poor’s 500 E-Mini here.

The highlights of that post were:

  • A correction was occurring
  • 2 targets of 2011.5 and 2030.
  • An open gap at 1896.5
  • Central Banks and interest rates

Just a week shy of 3 months since that post, lets see where we are.

  • A correction did occur from September 19th to October 15th. The correction was from 2014.5 to 1813 or 10.0%; a perfect “technical correction.”
  • The target of 2011.5 was hit on September 19th.
  • The target of 2030 is still valid and definitely within striking distance now.
  • The gap at 1896.5 was closed.
  • The US Federal Reserve has ended QE3 and in their October 29th announcement said.. “likely.. to maintain the 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time.. especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run goal”*
  • The Bank of Japan (BOJ) announced on October 31st they would increase their bond purchases (QQE) and will now include purchases of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and real estate investment trusts (J-REITs).*

*FOMC October 29th, 2014 Statement

*BOJ October 31st, 2014 Statement

S&P 500 E-Mini  1 year, daily chart

S&P 500 E-Mini

S&P 500 E-Mini

 

In the annotated chart below, I’ve outlined how the target of 2030 was derived.

S&P 500 E-Mini 4 year, daily chart

S&P 500 E-Mini

S&P 500 E-Mini

 


On August 24th, 2014 , I talked about Silver Futures here. In that post, the focus was on two key support levels that gave way and technically weakened silver appreciably.

  • 26.87 as 1st support
  • 21.455 as 2nd support level.
  • These levels were derived from a 20 year, monthly chart and had held for 18 months and 2 months, respectively.
  • A longer term target of 14.095

So let’s see where silver is trading now and how much, if any, damage was done by the two support levels not being able to hold.

In the chart below you can clearly see Silver continues to weaken, notwithstanding the noticeable buying late Friday.

  • A bear flag formed and did play out.
  • The current target is 16.08 and has been hit but isn’t closed.
  • The longer term target of 14.095 is still valid.
  • Price would have to close above 16.995 in short order to give any validity to Friday’s (10/31/2014) buying.

Silver Futures 1 year, daily chart

Silver Futures

Silver Futures

 


 

On September 12th, 2014, I talked about the strength of the US Dollar here.  In that post I highlighted:

  • 2 areas of consolidation preceding upward moves.
  • The consolidation periods were relatively short; 14 sessions and 6 sessions.

So how’s the dollar been doing in the last 6 weeks ? Still strong and as you can see in the chart below it’s currently at a new multi-year high. After the Bank of Japan’s announcement last Friday, I think the dollar has more room to the upside.

  • Current target = 87.485
  • It is worth noting that there is an open gap at 87.74 on a weekly chart.
  • On the same day that gap was created, a 5 year high was put in at 88.905.

US Dollar Index 1 year, daily chart

US Dollar Index

US Dollar Index

 

Charts were originally posted on @seeitmarket.


 

Thanks for reading, always use a stop and follow the chart !

 

Dave

 

1179 holds as support again $GC_F

By | Gold Futures | No Comments

Once again, gold, GC, has held the technical proverbial line in the sand just above the 1179 area. The trend shifted back up after a low of 1183.3. Tomorrow will be the 10th, a Friday. The WEEKLY close will need to be 1219.3 or higher to shift the DAILY trend to up.

Thx,

Dave

More of my gold posts at See It Market.

$GC_F Daily chart. Trend change. Target = 1234.2. Prior chart: http://stks.co/d15wp ||| http://stks.co/h193b

— David Busick (@TheFibDoctor) Oct. 8 at 04:44 PM

Wednesday, 10/8/14 was a GUDD day.. will it stick ? $GC_F $DX_F

By | Gold Futures, US Dollar Index Futures | No Comments

GUDD = Gold up, dollar down.

“What the hell happened?” seemed to be the question of the day Wednesday, October 8th, 2014. Gold moved up nearly $20 from it’s low to close at 1221.9 and is currently at 1226.6 as I type this.

The US Dollar Index made a low of 85.29 and currently is at 85.35, well off it’s high of 86.87 created just 5 days ago.

So, what happened. Pretty simple. From the FOMC minutes:

Over the intermeeting period, the foreign exchange value of the dollar had appreciated, particularly against the euro, the yen, and the pound sterling. Some participants expressed concern that the persistent shortfall of economic growth and inflation in the euro area could lead to a further appreciation of the dollar and have adverse effects on the U.S. external sector.

Will the spaghetti stick to the wall ? I don’t think it will but it will be interesting to watch 🙂

Thx,

Dave

Rough Week For Precious Metals: Gold Charts $GC_F $GPX

By | Gold Futures | No Comments

The Goldman Sachs Precious Metals Index (GPX), ended the week down another -1.55% at 1615.28. This closing price has decisively broken the weekly support of 1652.66 made in June of 2014. The next major support level to watch now is 1584.59, the weekly low made in December of 2013. I have been highlighting this weakness in precious metals for a while and it seems as if investors are finally beginning to take note of this development now.

Furthermore, should the US Dollar remain strong, there is a chance that the December lows are tested next week. There was notable weakness in both Gold and Silver on Friday and this could carry over to next week, so best to stay on your toes.

Goldman Sachs Precious Metals Index

GS Precious Metals Index

GS Precious Metals Index

 

As you can see in the chart below, Gold Futures hit and closed another downside Fibonacci price target of 1217.60 and now has a new downside target of 1207.40. Ironically, 1207.40 is also the new target on the daily chart as well. so that will be a price to watch early next week. Note that equity investors can follow the Gold ETF (GLD) as well.

Gold weekly chart.

Gold weekly target = 1207.4

Gold weekly target = 1207.4

 

Daily gold chart.

Gold daily chart. Target = 1207.4

Gold daily chart. Target = 1207.4

 

Thx,

Dave

This post originally appeared on See It Market.