Category Archives: Crude Oil Futures

Crude Oil Declines Into Major Fibonacci Price Target; Rallies. $CL_F

By | Crude Oil Futures, Traders Education, Updated Charts | No Comments

Crude oil futures prices dipped below $27 per barrel last week before recovering with a late week rally that recaptured the psychological level of $30.

That rally may seem minor in the scheme of things, but it has traders of all asset classes feeling better.

The crude oil decline has been sharp, but its been a long time in the making. In June of 2015 I wrote a piece on Crude Oil futures and gave a price target of $27.01. At the time, crude was trading at $58.88, so a crude oil decline of 54.12% seemed like stretch at best.

It took some time, but the oil market made its way to my mark. I derived this price target using my Fibonacci method that I like to call “One shot, one kill.” Below is the original chart that I shared prior to the recent crude oil decline to new lows.

Crude Oil Futures – 5 year, weekly chart

Crude Oil Futures  June 2015

Crude Oil Futures June 2015

 

Fast forward to the week of January 18th, 2016 and the price target of $27.01 was indeed hit on the February ’16 (G6) futures contract. Crude oil is currently trading around $32 on hints the ECB is poised to ease monetary policy even more. Is the market following crude oil prices or is crude following the market? Is the crude oil decline over? Stay tuned.

Below is the updated chart.

Crude Oil Futures – 5 year, weekly chart

Crude Oil Futures February 2016 contract

Crude Oil Futures February 2016 contract

 

Thanks for reading and always use a stop.

Dave

Why the 59.27 level is important for crude oil CL

By | Crude Oil Futures | No Comments

$59.27 was the high of the day on December 17th, 2014.  From May, 2015 to present, price has gravitated back to that level over and over. I mentioned that level in an article for See It Market also.

On June 29th, 2015 you can see how price was once again rejected at 59.27. The following day price was pushed back under this level before the close. That was the catalyst to hit our daily target today at 57.21.

Crude Oil Futures – 1 year chart

Crude Oil Futures

Crude Oil Futures

 

Thanks for reading 🙂

Dave

Crude Oil Prices Trade Sideways: A Fibonacci Review $CL_F

By | Crude Oil Futures | 2 Comments

Crude Oil prices have been a great exercise in patience, risk, and discipline. Seven weeks ago, I highlighted a short term target of 58.25, as well as several technical support and resistance levels for Crude Oil. One of those resistance levels was 59.27 and this level has proven to be an area where crude oil prices have turned sideways (perhaps a consolidation zone).

Although we are still waiting for further developments to get a beat on Crude Oil’s next move, below is a current look at Crude. Compare the previous chart with the one below. You’ll see how price continually gravitates to the 59.27 support/resistance level. Click charts to enlarge.

Crude Oil Futures Chart – 2015

Crude Oil Futures 6 month chart

Crude Oil Futures 6 month chart

 

Now let’s go back a bit more to December of 2014. In that article, I highlighted a downside target of 45.46, which was hit, and in January 2015 another downside target of 43.67 was projected and hit as well.

In the chart below, you can see Crude Oil prices went on to make a low of 42.41 in March, 2015 before moving up a respectable +47.55% to a high of 62.58 in May.

Crude Oil Futures Prices – March Low/Rally

Crude Oil Futures move up +47.55%

Crude Oil Futures move up +47.55%

 

So, where is price headed? Let’s see what the chart tells us. Starting with a multi year weekly chart, the first thing I want to identify is the first area of resistance, which is 75.05. Crude is currently at 58.88 or 27.46% below that. This also gives us a downside target of 27.01 which is (54.12%) below current price. Those are some very wide spreads and this should only be looked at from a long term investment point of view.

Crude Oil Futures – 5 Year Chart With Fibonacci Targets

Crude Oil Futures

Crude Oil Futures Target = $27.01

 

At this point, the only way to really play this is drawing smaller fibs inside of the one large fib until either 75.05 is hit or the target is hit. In my opinion, crude will, at some point, move back to 75.05. This is where you’ll want to watch for continuation or a strong rejection.  Price also needs to move out of the consolidation range it’s currently in to give us more clues as to long term direction.

I’ll continue to chart Crude Oil futures on a daily basis and post charts as levels change.

Currently, I have a downside target of 56.95 which was hit Friday, June 5th, 2015.

Crude Oil Prices – Short-term Fibonacci Targets

Crude Oil futures target of 56.95

Crude Oil futures target of 56.95

 

Thanks for reading and always use a stop !

Dave

This post originally appeared on See It Market

 

Crude Oil Prices Move Higher, Break Out Above Resistance CL

By | Crude Oil Futures | No Comments

Crude Oil prices have been trading higher of late and may be looking to keep the rally going. Last year’s brutal selloff of Crude Oil carried over into this year, but a near double bottom in January and March may be setting up for a continuation of the relief rally in Crude Oil prices.

Below is a daily chart that is geared towards swing traders. Using my Fibonacci method, I have a current daily price target of 58.25 for Crude Oil. And note that after breaking out above resistance at 54.24, that level now becomes support.

Additional support levels come into play at 53.39 and 52.61, while longer term resistance levels stand at 59.27, 69.54, 77.83, and 94.90 (those last two are way up there, but worthy of mentioning).

Bullish traders will need lower support levels to hold to keep Crude Oil in rally mode near-term. Trade safe.

Crude Oil Prices – Daily Chart

Crude Oil daily chart

Crude Oil daily chart

 

Thanks for reading and remember to always do your homework and use a stop when trading!

Dave

This post originally appeared on See It Market

Crude Oil Prices Eye 52 Week Lows: What’s Next For Crude? CL

By | Crude Oil Futures | No Comments

Crude Oil prices continue to be a hot topic. And as news continues to stream out of the Europe regarding the ECB’s bond buying program, the falling Euro, and/or country elections, oil keeps falling. The news cycle this week is no different, as the Greek elections could pressure the Euro and, in turn, Crude Oil prices. Perhaps there is too much focus on Europe and its battle with deflation. That’s likely just one primary component to a larger global slowdown; clearly crude had (has) a major supply/demand issue as well.

But this week could be important, as Crude is set to test its 52 week lows after recording its lowest weekly close in over 5 years. And that means traders and chartists will have their eyes on Crude Oil prices this week.

On December 14, 2014, using my custom Fibonacci method, I derived a longer term target on (Light Sweet) Crude Oil futures (CL) of $45.46. At that time, crude was trading at $57.49 so a move down of another $12.03 or (20.9%) may have seemed like a stretch to some. The target of $45.46 was indeed hit 3 times on a daily basis before closing the target on Friday, January 23rd, 2015. Go back and read my original post and check out the charts for more information.

Now that the longer-term target has been hit and closed, we’ll need to do some chart calculations and see what’s possibly next for crude. Let’s start with a look at the big picture, a 20-year, monthly chart. Using an old but reliable method of drawing a simple support line, we can see in the chart below that a support level of $33.20 was made in January and February of 2009.

Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures 20 Year, Monthly Chart  (click charts to enlarge)

Light Sweet Crude Oil futures 20 year, monthly chart

Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures 20 year, monthly chart


 

Now that the longer term target has been closed, we’ll drill down to a daily chart and obtain a shorter term target. Again, using my custom Fibonacci method of acquiring future targets, you can see in the daily chart below we have a target of  43.67 with resistance levels at 48.47 and 49.24.

Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures 1 Year, Daily Chart

Light Sweet Crude Oil futures 1 year, daily chart

Light Sweet Crude Oil futures 1 year, daily chart


 

For now, I’ll watch crude on a daily basis. If and when crude does make a substantial move up and gives me a valid point of reference, I’ll be able to determine another longer term target.

Thanks for reading and ALWAYS use a stop loss.

This post originally appeared on See It Market.

 

 

Could Crude Oil Prices Fall To $45 Per Barrel? CL_F

By | Crude Oil Futures | No Comments

All eyes on Crude Oil prices. The downturn has been relentless and traders are now trying to figure out where the bottom will be. Normally, I only chart Crude Oil Futures on a daily basis, but with the recent collapse in futures price I wanted to apply my Fibonacci method to some longer time frame charts to ascertain where price may be headed. If you follow me on the many social networks I post on, you know my method gives reliable targets as well as exit points if the trade goes against you.

So let’s get started with the big picture, a 20 year, monthly chart.

In the chart below, you can see:

  • Crude moved from a low of 10.65 in December 1998 to a high of 147.27 in July 2008.
  • That’s a monster gain of 1,282.81%.
  • Two crucial levels of support (long term) of 78.96 and 62.84.
  • The 2nd support level of 62.84 has been violated.
  • There are only 10 full trading days left in 2014
  • Crude would need to close above 62.84 before the end of the year to maintain this support level.

Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures 20 year, monthly chart

Crude Oil Futures 20 Year

Crude Oil Futures 20 Year

 

Now let’s drill down to a shorter time frame and see what levels we find. In the 1 year, daily chart below we see:

  • A high of 107.68 was made on June, 13th, 2014.
  • Price dropped to 57.34 on December 12th, 2014.
  • That’s a move of (-46.74%).
  • This creates a daily target of 45.46.
  • Two resistance levels of 82.51 and 88.45. Keep in mind these are longer term levels.

Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures 1 year, daily chart

Crude Oil Futures Daily

Crude Oil Futures Daily

 

Now let’s go back to a 20 year monthly chart except this time after doing drawings and calculations I was able to find the correct drawing for shorter term Fibonacci levels.

In the chart below, you’ll see something very interesting; the target of 45.46. This is the same target derived from the Fibonacci levels on the 1 year, daily chart.

For now, I’ll monitor the monthly close to see if price can reclaim the 2nd support level of 62.84. I’ll revisit Crude Oil Futures in January 2015.

Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures 20 year, monthly chart

Crude Oil Futures 20 Year

Crude Oil Futures 20 Year

 

And lastly, on a 15 minute intraday chart, the last target derived on Friday, December 12th was  57.4. That target was hit and held going into the close Friday.

Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures 1 day, 15 minute chart

Crude Oil Futures 15 minute

Crude Oil Futures 15 minute

 

Always use a stop and thank you for reading.

Dave

This post originally appeared on See It Market