Unless you’ve been hiding out in a cave or on a distantÂ planet, you know the stock market has been in a bull phase since early 2009. To add perspective, the S&P has tacked on a whoppingÂ +217.87% from March 2009 to the February 2015 high ! It would be natural for one to think the bull ride may beÂ coming to an end. But is it ? Let’s briefly touch on some past posts/charts and see what the numbers said then versus now. I’ll give you links back to previous articles for reference.
First, to get a general view of the market as a whole, refer back to this February 2015 post. In that post I highlighted the following:
- A correction in September-October of 2014 of (9.83%). That’s close enough to (10%) for me.
- Two pullbacks of (5.14%) and (5.38%).
- The average of the past seven pullbacks wasÂ (4.72Â %).
The shallowness of the pullbacks indicates strength to me, i.e. The bull ain’t done !
The following chart is identical to the one in the February post other than it shows the new high of 2119.59 which was put in this week. (February 23rd – 27th)
S&P 500 Corrections and Pullbacks â€“ 10 Year Weekly Chart
In this December 2014 post, I posted eight charts, 2 each of theÂ Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), NASDAQ Composite (COMPQ), S&P 500 (SPX) and the Russell 2000 (RUT). In each series, I used a tenÂ year weekly to show the breakout above the 2007 highs and a one yearÂ daily showing current resistance levels or what I deemedÂ â€œmake or breakâ€ levels as volume returned and the â€œSanta Clauseâ€Â rally began to wind down.
Since the time of that post, each indice has indeed made new highs; the Dow +0.77%, the NASDAQ +3.61%, the S&P +1.24% and the Russell 2000 +1.54%. These are gains to the current highs , not current price.
In my January 2015 post, I highlighted where a (10%) correction would be from the current highs. None of the indices came close to a “correction,” but the pullbacks were as follows:
- Dow Jones Industrial Average pullback = (4.75%)
- NASDAQ Composite pullback = (5.23%)
- S&P 500 Index pullback = (5.03%)
- Russell 2000 Index pullback = (5.74%)
Now that we find ourselves in the first trading week of March 2015, let’s see if the bull is still raging or is there a pack of bears hiding up ahead.
Starting with theÂ Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), you’ll see in the chart below two areas of major resistance; one at 17991.19 and one at 18103.45. Price has cleared both levels and they will now be support.
Dow Jones Industrial Average â€“ 1 Year DailyÂ chart
Next you’ll see the NASDAQ only has one level that I consider important in the context of this post, 4814.95.
NASDAQ Composite 1 Year Chart
Moving on to the broader view of the market, the S&P 500 gives us two levels of resistance that have been cleared and are now support at 2079.47 and 2093.55.
S&P 500 Index â€“ 1 Year DailyÂ chart
And lastly, the small cap index, the Russell 2000 also gives us two levels of resistance which have been cleared and are now support at 1213.55 and 1221.44.
Russell 2000 Index â€“ 1 Year Daily Chart
It is worth noting that each indice does have open gaps from February that are below the aforementioned support levels. It is not at all unusual to see price come back to close a gap and then push back above the previous support.
Thanks for reading and always use a stop loss order.
This originally posted on See It Market